056
FXUS64 KEPZ 010924
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry and warm weather for the foreseeable future as dry west to
southwest flow aloft continues. Above normal temperatures will
continue into the weekend, while the dry conditions will create
near critical fire conditions. This afternoon will see breezy
winds, though the rest of the week will remain on the lighter side
for winds. Winds do become gusty again Sunday and Monday as a
Pacific system begins moving in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Skies remain clear this morning as dry southwest flow aloft ahead
of a trough over the Pac NW continues. At the surface, storms
from the southern Plains created large area of outflow which is
forcing the dryline westward toward our CWA. Lead edge of the
moisture surge in far SE NM and Pecos Valley of Texas. There is a
salient of moisture out ahead surging to Carlsbad. HRRR
initializes this feature pretty well and shows farthest west
position near Hudspeth County and possible briefly into extreme
eastern Hudspeth later this morning. Models all show westerlies
forcing the dryline well east of our area by prime heating time
this afternoon--thus not much impact from the moisture. Elsewhere
the aforementioned upper trough moves over the Great Basin this
afternoon, developing decent lee-side low over SE Colorado. This
will produce some gusty winds this afternoon. This will lead to
near critical fire conditions all areas. RFW conditions could
briefly materialize around the fire zones.

Not much change through Saturday as dry southwest flow aloft
persists. Afternoon winds each day, though breezy, should be a bit
lower than today, so fire conditions remaining in an elevated
state. Next feature to watch is Pacific system moving to the Pac
NW Saturday and then over the Great Basin Sunday. This will begin
ramping up winds for both Sunday and Monday. Upper trough too far
north for any shot at rain, but fire conditions likely bumping
into RFW criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VMC through forecast period under dry southwest flow aloft. Skies
SKC overnight and Wednesday. Surface winds 240-280 at 05-10 knots
overnight, increasing to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday afternoon. Peak
gusts up to 30 knots across southern NM mid-afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Fire conditions will remain at least elevated through the weekend
and into Monday. This afternoon winds will pick up and reach and
fire conditions will reach near-critical, especially over the
lowlands of zones 111 and 112. Winds subside a bit the rest of the
week into Saturday, but our next Pacific storm moves just north of
us Sunday and Monday. This will result in gusty winds and likely
RFW conditions both days.

Min RHs: Lowlands 6-10% through Sunday. Mountains 8-15% through
Sunday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  61  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  57  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               89  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               87  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  39  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    87  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              78  46  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  51  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  56  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  57  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             88  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    88  50  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  51  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  45  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  42  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  48  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                85  47  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  41  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    83  35  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  34  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner