Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 252347
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Breezy to windy conditions will continue this afternoon behind the
passage of this morning`s front. Westerly wind speeds sustained at
15-30 mph are forecast for most areas outside the Coastal Plains
today, and some western locations could see a few 40-45 mph gusts.
These winds are ushering in a very dry airmass with RH falling into
the teens almost all the way to US-281 this afternoon. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions continue through about 7-8pm, but
winds will drop off quickly as the pressure gradient slackens and we
lose daytime heating/mixing this evening. Thus, the Wind Advisory
and Red Flag Warning are on track for their respective 7pm and 8pm
end times. Seasonal highs today will reach the low 80s south and low
70s north.

A secondary cold front will sneak into the area late tonight, and a
couple spots could dip into the upper 30s in the Hill Country by
sunrise. The front should stall nearby before being pushed back out
during the day Tuesday. Look for quieter weather, but a Rangeland
Fire Danger statement may be needed for Val Verde/Edwards/Kinney
counties in the afternoon where wind speeds may approach 15 mph
coincident with RH in the teens. Cooler highs are forecast, in the
mid to upper 60s north and east of Austin to near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Tuesday night remains quiet and seasonally cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The base of the upper level trough affecting the weather in the
short term will swing across South-Central Texas on Wednesday. This
may induce some spotty morning shower activity, most concentrating
from the Southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country. During
Wednesday afternoon, just enough weak instability builds to where
isolated thunderstorms could also develop over portions of the Hill
Country into the northern half of the I-35 corridor thanks to the
help from a residual surface boundary and/or dryline. Any activity
wanes through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
afternoon highs on Wednesday will top out in the 70s for most and
into the low 80s for locations along the Rio Grande.

A warmer and fair weather pattern develops through the rest of the
long term period. Upper level ridging settles across the region for
the weekend before the flow aloft turns more southwesterly heading
into early next week as the next upper level trough takes shape to
our west. Within the lower levels of the atmosphere, including at
the surface, light to moderate south to southeasterly breezes will
prevail as surface high pressure stays displaced to our east. The
winds will be occasionally breezy at times. Rain chances remain
minimal beyond Wednesday until sometime towards the middle of next
week. Afternoon highs and overnight lows steadily climb each day
with highs topping out by Monday in the mid 80s to the mid 90s
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Gusty winds should ease at area TAF sites over the
next 1-2 hours, with west to northwest winds continuing through this
evening. Winds shift to a more northerly direction along I-35 early
tomorrow morning as a cold front moves in from the north. Winds
remain from the north along I-35, with gusty northwest winds
returning to DRT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon over the
Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau where minimum
relative humidities will fall to between 10-20% along with gusty
westerly winds of 20-30 mph, gusting to 40-45mph at times. Factoring
in 10 hour fuels at less than 3% for a majority of the area
mentioned, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from until 8pm today
along with a Wind Advisory until 7pm. A Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement is in effect for areas east of the Red Flag Warning, the
Hill Country and I-35/I-37 corridor until 8pm.

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue
tomorrow afternoon, mainly for portions of Val Verde/Edwards/Kinney
counties where RH again will dip into the teens and sustained wind
speeds could briefly approach 15mph. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions may continue over portions of these same areas
both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon as afternoon temperatures
climb.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              46  70  48  72 /   0   0   0  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  69  45  72 /   0   0   0  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     46  73  47  74 /   0   0   0  30
Burnet Muni Airport            40  66  46  70 /   0   0   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  80  54  82 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        42  67  45  70 /   0   0   0  30
Hondo Muni Airport             47  77  49  76 /   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        45  70  46  71 /   0   0   0  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   47  68  46  72 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       48  74  50  75 /   0   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           49  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Dimmit-
Edwards-Frio-Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Medina-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-
Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Platt


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