367
FXUS64 KEWX 301852
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
152 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The upper level flow over TX this afternoon is nearly zonal with a
slight anticyclonic curvature. The low level flow is from the
southeast. A warm, moist airmass remains in place over our CWA with
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s. Low
level flow will continue from the southeast tonight resulting in
another warm night. Lows will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Skies will become mostly cloudy and patchy fog will develop over the
eastern half of the area. Patchy drizzle The upper flow will turn
southwesterly tonight leading to a more active pattern. Initially,
we may see convection in the southeasterly flow off the Gulf with
showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Plains and
spreading into the I-35 Corridor during the afternoon. Then late
afternoon and early evening a dryline will approach our western area
and will be likely to generate additional storms. These storms will
move off the dryline toward the east. There may  be sufficient
bouyancy and vertical wind shear for strong to severe storms. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat. SPC has
included most of our CWA in the Marginal risk for Wednesday.
Convection should continue into the overnight period
Wednesday/Thursday while moving toward the east. The best chances
for convection will be across our northern area. There will also be
sufficient deep moisture to produce locally heavy rain across this
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Our active stretch of weather is expected to continue through the
late week period as southwesterly mid-level flow continues, with
several shortwave troughs rippling through the long wave flow through
the end of the week. Warm, muggy, and let`s call it what it is,
disgusting mornings will continue as gulf moisture remains in play
through the late week period. Recent wetting rains have added
moisture to the soil and will contribute to the elevated humidity as
well.

At this juncture, Friday evening and night looks like our best chance
at storms, some of which could be strong. The primary hazards would
be large hail and damaging winds, in addition to locally heavy
rainfall. For now, PoPs are in the 20-30% range but that may increase
if confidence in this scenario increases as higher res guidance gets
into the window/timeframe of this potential event.

Beyond Friday, things start to trend drier and hotter, as the storm
track starts to shift further north of our CWA. Despite continued
southwesterly flow aloft, a dryline will start to sharpen up and push
eastward each afternoon Monday-Tuesday, along with westerly
downsloping flow from the surface to about 700mb each day. This would
result in compressional warming over much of the area as highs surge
into the 90s region wide, and even some triple digits over the Rio
Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

MVFR ceilings are hanging in at DRT and AUS, but should lift to VFR
within the next hour. All terminals will be VFR through the
afternoon and evening. Low ceilings will develop again overnight at
all area airports and eventually drop to IFR. Wednesday morning will
bring slow improvement. There is a chance for convection Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  84  72  85 /   0  50  60  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  84  71  84 /   0  50  50  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  85  72  86 /   0  50  50  40
Burnet Muni Airport            70  82  70  84 /   0  40  70  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  89  75  95 /  20  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  83  70  84 /   0  40  60  50
Hondo Muni Airport             70  85  70  85 /  10  40  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  84  71  85 /   0  50  50  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  84  73  84 /   0  40  40  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  84  72  85 /   0  50  50  40
Stinson Muni Airport           73  86  73  86 /   0  50  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05