Text Products for AFD Issued by FGF

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 140247
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50% chance for areas to see greater than an inch of
  moisture during the first half of the week, particularly
  locations in southeastern North Dakota into west central
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Showers continue to diminish across the region. Skies will
remain quiet tonight with high level clouds filtering in. No
weather impacts are anticipated overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A weak mid-level wave is proving to be enough to create elevated
showers atop a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon though these
showers are showing great difficulty in reaching the ground with 8-
10k ft of dry air below. Increasing moisture from 700-500mb and 850-
700mb fgen will continue to support these showers/virga through the
early afternoon as the main 500mb wave tracks swiftly east. Short
term ridging behind these showers along with cold air advection
aloft will clear out remaining cloud cover as overnight lows drop
into the low to mid 40s. Ample warming under mostly clear skies
tomorrow will favor another day of warm temps as we climb into the
60s and lower 70s. Fire weather is not a major concern as winds will
be only in mid teens gusting near 20mph in the afternoon remaining
NW while RH bottoms out in the low 20s. So while fuels are dry and
we are nearing thresholds of concern, critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

Precipitation chances increase as soon as Sunday night. Warm air
advection and a low level jet will will provide enough lift for
showers and even some embedded elevated convection Sunday night into
Monday. Rainfall totals should remain on the lighter side, with
probabilities for over a tenth inch at 50%. There will be a lull in
rain late Monday into early Tuesday.

The main large scale upper level low propagates into the central
plains on Tuesday. Another upper level low propagating out of the
Canadian Rockies will interact with the southern low. An inverted
trough between the two lows will extend through the FA. The axis of
heaviest rain will hinge on the exact track of the low and
subsequent placement of this inverted trough. The low and inverted
trough will propagate east on Wednesday, which will allow rain to
wane from west to east through the afternoon. Rainfall totals may be
enhanced in the southern Red River Valley into west central
Minnesota due to embedded convection on Tuesday. Rainfall totals
will have a tight western gradient following the inverted trough,
which remains uncertain. Probabilities show a upwards of a 50%
chance for an inch or more of rainfall, favoring southeastern North
Dakota into west central Minnesota with this system Tuesday into
Wednesday. Probabilities fall closer to 30% in the Devils Lake
Basin.

By Thursday, the low will propagate over the Great Lakes. As it does
so, cold air advection will overtake the northern plains and upper
midwest. Depending on the orientation of the inverted trough
extending from the low pressure, snow showers may overspread parts
of the FA, particularly near the Canadian border. If a slower
scenario evolves, snow showers may linger into Friday. Currently,
there is a low (20%) chance of this. It will also be breezy, which
combined with below average temperatures in the 40s, will make for a
cool end to the work week with below freezing overnight lows
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Wind direction will be the main issue for the TAF period,
especially in the next 6 hours. Wind direction will meander to
westerly for a few hours at GFK/TVF/FAR, but will return to
northwesterly after midnight. All TAF sitesw will become
northwesterly through the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated
SHRA may impact TVF/BJI/GFK but impacts will be light as
precipitation rates will be very light. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Rafferty/TT
AVIATION...Perroux
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
