Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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469 FXUS65 KFGZ 112044 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 144 PM MST Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected today with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday, with slight chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon through Thursday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through the period. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system centered over the Arizona/Utah border during the afternoon was continuing to move eastward. For the remainder of today, instability will remain in place from the Mogollon Rim northward with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing into the evening hours. The subcloud layer will remain fairly dry so evaporational cooling in stronger showers and storms has the potential to induce some local wind gust in the 30 to 40 mph range. Activity is expected to come to an end by midnight. On Sunday...The current low heads east of Arizona. However, moisture will linger over the area. The result will be, with daytime heating, the development of cloud buildups over the mountain areas with a few afternoon sprinkles or light showers. The threat for any thunderstorms appears minimal but can never be completely ruled out. Away from the mountains look for mainly to partly sunny skies. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast as the cooler air mass associated with the low moves out of the area. Behind the low winds will generally be from the northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon gusts approaching 25 mph. Monday and Tuesday...Moisture lingers under high pressure. Not much in the way of forcing except for daytime heating with moisture values remaining marginal. The result, midday to afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains each day with a slight chance of showers. As mentioned above a stray thunderstorm is always possible with the stronger spring sun. Daytime temperatures will hover around seasonal averages but likely be the warmest on Monday. Afternoon winds becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph gusting to near 25 mph with the passing high. Wednesday and Thursday...Another weak low will move over Arizona. Look for an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what is being observed today (Saturday). Friday into next weekend...Warmer weather and dry conditions are forecast as another high pressure system moves across the state. && .AVIATION...Saturday 11/18Z through Sunday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions persist through this afternoon and evening. Periods of MVFR VIS and mountain obscuration are forecast from 18Z-02Z today due to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA. Greatest chances (30-60%) are along and north of a KCMR-KFLG-KINW-KRQE line during this time. Anticipate BKN-OVC sky coverage at or above 10,000 feet AGL, becoming clear overnight. Outside of any outflow gusts of up to 25 kts from showers and storms this afternoon, expect westerly winds of 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/18Z through Tuesday 14/18Z...Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon through Tuesday, mainly confined to the high terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in any storms, with much of the region remaining in VFR. Northwest winds, 10-20 kts, are anticipated for Sunday, followed by west-southwest winds for Monday and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Above average temperatures return on Sunday and continue to Monday. Isolated showers and a few high-based thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mainly confined to the Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. Outside of any erratic outflow gusts from storms, expect northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph on Sunday, followed by west-southwest winds on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances persist each afternoon through Thursday with the greatest coverage likely on Wednesday. Precipitation totals of less than 0.10" are expected during this time. The 5 degree above average temperatures continue each day with minimum humidity of 15 to 20%. Afternoon winds will be out of the west each day with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff