778
FXUS65 KFGZ 070538
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1038 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a windy and dry day on Tuesday, a Wind Advisory
is in effect for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Critical
Fire Weather conditions are likely north of the Mogollon Rim. The
remainder of the week will feature breezy days and temperatures a
bit below average. Warmer conditions return by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Look for a few high clouds, light winds and a crisp
overnight temperatures all in line with the current forecast
package with no evening update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 PM MST/...The low pressure system that
brought last night`s weather continues to push away from Arizona
this afternoon as it makes its way into the Northern Plains states.
In it`s wake, a cool and breezy day is underway across northern
Arizona.

While yesterday`s low continues to wobble around the northern
plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in
across much of the west through the end of this week and early
part of the weekend. The will keep temperatures near to below
normal most days. Another wave feature and associated cold front
will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will
tighten pressure gradients across Arizona. Wind speeds will
increase enough to warrant a wind advisory and some low elevation
red flag warnings for northeastern Arizona where the strongest
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Wind directions will be more
westerly on Tuesday as opposed to the predominate southwesterly we
usually see this time of year. A few pockets of blowing dust will
also be possible in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Valleys.

As the upper level low sags southward and into Arizona from
Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect much less wind. A few
showers cannot be ruled out and there`s a 10-20% chance from
Friday through Sunday mainly across Apache County and 4 Corners
areas. The bulk of the forecast area looks to remain dry, but
there is some indication among ensemble member solutions for a
slightly deeper low developing which could increases these
chances, something to keep an eye on.

High pressure looks to dominate the weather pattern by Sunday with
a warming trend expected to begin.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/06Z through Wednesday 08/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds increasing to SW-W15-25g30-35kts from 18Z
through 02Z, then decreasing after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daily W-SW sfc winds 10-20g25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Near seasonable daytime
temperatures on both days. Gusty southwest winds and low relative
humidity values will lead to Critical Fire Weather conditions north
of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday afternoon. Decreased wind speeds and
continued dry for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm slightly each
day. Southwest through west winds 10 to 20 mph on Thursday, then
trending northerly 10 to 20 mph Friday and Saturday, a bit gustier
on Saturday. Mostly dry, but a chance of showers develops over the
eastern zones Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff