Text Products for AFD Issued by GGW

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS65 KGGW 190315
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
915 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update:
Clouds this evening have keeped atmosphere mixed thus winds
higher than expected so extended Lake Wind Advisory into the
overnight hours. Winds look to be near or slightly above Lake Wind
Advisory conditions again Friday but lighter winds are finally
expeccted for Saturday.

TFJ
Previous Discussion...
KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and breezy conditions will continue through Friday with
scattered snow showers at times.

2) Warmer weather looks to move into the area next week.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

NE Montana looks to sit on the southwest edge of an upper level
low pressure system tonight into Friday. This will lead to a
continuation of cool and breezy conditions and enough instability
for scattered snow showers at times. The Lake Wind Advisory for
Fort Peck Lake continues until 9 PM this evening, but conditions
may marginally support extension or re-issuance on Friday.
Surface high pressure will enter the picture Friday night allowing
for winds to diminish. A shallow ridge on Sunday ahead of an
approaching shortwave will then set up a warm up late this
weekend. Ensembles more broadly continue to support warmer
temperature solutions throughout the extended period.


CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Pops were trended higher for tonight into Friday above the base
NBM guidance in collaboration with neighbors. This has support
from area observations and radar trends and makes sense in the
near term with the instability present. While high confidence
exists on a warm up toward the end of the weekend, medium
confidence continues on the next into early next week. Unstable
conditions are expected but timing and placing any specific
precipitation chances will be a challenge at extended time scales.
Therefore, have opted to remain close to NBM at this time for the
long range.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0310Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR with brief MVFR.

DISCUSSION: Isolated snow showers will continue to drop SE in the
vicinity of KOLF and KSDY into Friday morning, possibly bringing
brief MVFR conditions.

Gradual improvement is expected late Friday.

WIND: NW winds will range from 15 to 30 kts through much of Friday
before diminishing late Friday/Friday evening to about 10 kts. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Friday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
