324
FXUS63 KGID 021922
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
222 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances increase (up to near 90%) Friday
  evening and night. Some of these storms may be severe with
  damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and localized
  flooding.

- Rain and storm chances increase again (up to near 70%) on
  Monday with severe storms possible (about a 30% chance).

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and 70s. Low
  temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough extends from the West Coast to the Midwest. Breezy
northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Temperatures are mostly in the 60s with
clearing skies. Winds will transition to the south tonight as the
surface high moves east of the area. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Friday and Friday night...

An upper trough from the west will begin moving over the northern
and central Plains on Friday. Winds will increase out of the south
to southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will
range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The central part of the upper
trough will move over the region Friday evening into Friday night
accompanied by a cold front. Atmospheric lift will increase across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Fairly
high wind shear, moisture, and mid-level lapse rates will be across
the area as well Friday night. These conditions will allow for an
increase in rain and storm chances (up to near 90%) Friday evening
and night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with most of
the area outlooked in a marginal risk of severe weather per the
latest SPC Day 2 outlook. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat
with these storms although some hail up to the size of quarters and
localized flooding will be possible. Low temperatures Friday night
are expected to range from the mid 30s to low 50s.

Saturday through Sunday night...

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the
forecast area Saturday morning. Northerly winds will be across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday
with clearing skies. High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s on
Saturday. Winds will transition to the east to southeast Saturday
night as the surface high moves across eastern Nebraska into Iowa.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday night. An upper
trough will be present over the western part of the country on
Sunday with upper disturbances moving over Nebraska and Kansas. Some
rain showers will be possible (up to around a 40% chance) in the
morning and afternoon on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are
expected to be in the 60s with breezy southeast winds. These breezy
southeast winds will continue into Sunday night with low
temperatures in the 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to around 50%)
will continue Sunday night as the upper trough from the west begins
to move over the central and northern Plains.

Monday and Monday night...

The upper trough will move further east on Monday and will begin to
lift northeast by Monday evening with the upper low over Kansas and
Nebraska. Winds will continue to strengthen out of the southeast to
south on Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible (up to near
a 70% chance). High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower
70s to lower 80s. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
(about a 30% chance) Monday afternoon into the early evening hours.
The storms are expected to move out of the area Monday night. Low
temperatures Monday night will be in the 40s. Winds Monday night
will be gusty out of the southwest to west.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

A big upper trough will be present from the northern Plains to the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Winds will be gusty out of the west
Tuesday afternoon across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. High temperatures will mostly be in the 70s.
Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the 40s. The upper
trough will still be present over the northern and central Plains on
Wednesday with a cold front moving into the area. High temperatures
on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will mostly be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered MVFR ceilings will clear out of GRI early this
afternoon and VFR conditions are expected afterwards. Winds will
be gusty out of the northwest this afternoon then weaken by this
evening and become northeasterly by 03z then southeasterly by
06z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt