Text Products for AFD Issued by GJT

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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FXUS65 KGJT 091731
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1131 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Aside from a stray shower across the southern Colorado
  mountains, mainly dry weather is in store today under partly
  to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be near to a few
  degrees below normal.

- A weak disturbance will clip the northern Colorado mountains
  late tonight into Wednesday, bringing a few showers and minor
  snow accumulations.

- Elsewhere, warm and dry weather prevails through at least the
  end of the week before the next system arrives either late
  this weekend or early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The closed low well to our south will gradually slide eastward
into western Texas today. Other than producing a parting stray
shower or two across the southern Continental Divide mountains,
dry weather will prevail as the system pulls away. In addition
to the mainly dry weather, ridging nosing in from the west will
also help to boost high temperatures a few degrees higher than
yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will still
be near to slightly below normal overall, however.

Tonight into Wednesday, a weak and fast moving disturbance
embedded within northwest flow will clip the northern Colorado
mountains. Given weak forcing and limited moisture, the
resulting showers are expected to be mostly light. Snow
accumulations will generally amount to an inch or less with
perhaps up to 2 inches in the highest elevations of the Park
Range. Showers taper off by sunset Wednesday evening as the wave
exits and daytime heating is lost. Elsewhere, quiet weather
persists through the remainder of the short term period. Lows
tonight will range from the teens and 20s in the mountains to
the 20s and 30s in the valleys. Highs on Wednesday will be
similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. In the wake of
the weak wave, a large ridge then builds in and brings even
warmer temperatures through the end of the week. For more on
that, continue on to the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

On Thursday an amplified ridge approaches from the west keeping
conditions dry and warmer than normal. On Friday the ridge axis
passes overhead allowing for southwest flow, which makes it the
warmest day of the week. Highs look to be 10-15 degrees above
average. Desert valleys will see temps reach the 80s while
mountain towns top out in the 60s. Meanwhile a low pressure
system associated with the tropical jet begins to under cut the
ridge and work inland across the Desert Southwest. Late Friday
this wave reaches our forecast area. The models seem to be
struggling with whether this low will have any moisture when it
passes overhead. If any showers were to develop the better
chances would be in the higher terrain and the probability of
measurable precip would be low given the very dry low level air
mass in place. The next system to watch will be a strong low
moving southward along the West Coast. The model solutions
regarding this low seem to change every run cycle. The trend has
been a delay in landfall and therefore a later arrival here.
The consensus for the past few runs is that we will not see
impacts here until next week, excluding the wind. Strong winds
will materialize as the associated pressure gradient gets
closer, which might occur over the weekend. Confidence in the
evolution of this storm is low attm, but so far the weekend is
looking dry and perhaps windy overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the afternoon.
However, increasing clouds will spill along Colorado`s northern
Rockies this evening due to a weak wave returning light
showers, mainly across higher terrain tonight. Terminals will
largely remain unaffected from said wave, with the exception of
HDN which has a low chance (20 percent) of seeing showers around
midnight tonight. Improving conditions slide in from the west,
with clearing skies under high pressure building overhead
Wednesday morning.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
