Text Products for FWF Issued by GRR

Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS53 KGRR 161431
FWFGRR

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Updated to add Red Flag Warning...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Winds from the east will increase this afternoon
to 10 to 20 mph, and gusts to 30 mph will be likely. Dew points
are expected to mix down into the 20s this afternoon without any
good moisture advection until this evening with rainfall. These
conditions combined with the fuel conditions observed by land
management agencies will set the stage for fires that start to
spread quickly this afternoon.


MIZ037>039-043>045-162030-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart,
Fremont, and Big Rapids
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....63-68.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3000-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....610-990 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.06 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....41-46.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. East winds 23 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1200-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....460-480 (good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.52 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......near 100 percent.
Max temperature.....62-67.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......42 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 18 mph shifting to the
                    south around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1400-1900 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    2900-3400 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 25 mph shifting to the south
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....420-840 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.38-0.69 in.


$$

MIZ040-046-162030-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 hr trend......10 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 11 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3100-3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....560-740 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (60-70 percent) until 11 PM, then
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 10 PM until 1 AM, then rain
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2
                    AM.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....39-44.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......East winds 17 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1300-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....330-390 (good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......near 100 percent.
Max temperature.....61-66.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 hr trend......41 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 11 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2100-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....350-480 (good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.46-0.74 in.


$$

MIZ050-056-064-162030-
Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-
Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, and Holland
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....68-73.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 hr trend......2 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3100-3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....570-1040 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.07 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....49-54.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southeast winds 21 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......900-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....260-300 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.34-0.52 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 5 PM. Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....67-72.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 hr trend......38 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 18 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 19 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 29 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1200-1700 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3100-3600 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....710-1090 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.38-0.64 in.


$$

MIZ071-162030-
Van Buren-
Including the city of South Haven
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 5 PM.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent late in the day.
Max temperature.....68-73.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 hr trend......9 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 14 to 19 mph with gusts to around 28
                    mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1100-1600 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3000-3500 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....580-910 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.04 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
   24 hr trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......30 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southeast winds 21 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....230-280 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.31-0.42 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 5 PM. Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....67-72.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 hr trend......29 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 17 to 22 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3400-3900 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....840-1270 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.37-0.57 in.


$$

MIZ051-052-057>059-162030-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia,
and St. Johns
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 5 PM, then partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....66-71.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 hr trend......8 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3200-3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....580-920 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.04 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......East winds 18 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....290-400 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.16-0.44 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......near 100 percent.
Max temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 hr trend......36 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 16 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 17 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3200-3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 25 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....600-1050 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.57-0.91 in.


$$

MIZ065>067-162030-
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, and Lansing
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 hr trend......8 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 12 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3100-3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....530-810 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 18 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....220-230 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.38 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......near 100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 hr trend......35 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 17 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3000-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....750-970 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.62-0.81 in.


$$

MIZ072>074-162030-
Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....68-73.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 hr trend......12 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 12 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3000-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....520-780 (good to excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.03 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....49-54.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......28 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 17 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....190-240 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......near 100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 hr trend......29 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 17 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3800-4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....890-1280 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.55-0.85 in.


$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. West
winds 9 to 14 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 7 to
12 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 40s. West winds 7 to 12 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds 15 to
20 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 12 to
17 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Northwest winds 13 to
18 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

$$
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
