389
FXHW01 KWNH 080712
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 00Z Thu May 09 2024 - 00Z Thu May 16 2024

...A wet pattern emerging for Hawaii...

Trade flow into the islands has less support through the rest of
the week with weakening and shift of mid-latitude high pressure
with onset of ample mid-latitude upper troughing/height falls and
lead surface frontal approach. This also prompts a more moist
island trade response/inverted surface troughing. Forecast spread
continues to decrease as guidance continues a trend toward
development of an ampified upper trough/low over the state late
week and weekend that seems reasonable considering amplified
upstream upper ridging. There is then a longer term guidance trend
for upstream digging of amplified kicker/replacement upper trough
energy toward the state early-mid next week to rejuvinate wet
pattern support. A favored composite of decently clustered
guidance solutions bolsters confidence in development of an
emerging wetter pattern for the state with potential for locally
heavier rainfall, with some focus into favored terrain.

Schichtel

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