Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1032 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and
southeast Kansas will have a near normal risk of flooding this
Spring...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from February 15th through February 29th, 2024.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Recent Conditions:

There is no snowpack within the the service area at this time.
However, just recently a narrow swath of snow impacted southeast
Kansas at the start of this work week. Snowfall amounts were in the 1
to 4 inch range. Most of the snow had melted by the following
morning. Seasonal snowfall departures varied from above normal to
below normal across the HSA. Snowfall deficit values were slightly
below normal to near 4 inches over central and southeast Kansas.
Above normal seasonal snowfall departures ranged from 2 inches to 12
inches over parts of central and south central Kansas.

As a result of the mid-January Arctic blast, during a two week
period, frozen soils reached down to 8 to 12 inches. Another cold
period  during the last week of December resulted in frost
penetration down to 7 inches. Currently, frozen soils are non-
existent across Kansas. As we move into spring, chances decrease to
see future frozen soils and therefore should not play a factor in
spring runoff.

Precipitation over the last 6 months has been below normal to
slightly above normal across the area. Most of central and southeast
Kansas received 70 percent to near 100 percent of its normal
precipitation. South central Kansas received 80 to 120 percent of its
normal moisture. In the below normal areas, precipitation deficits
were running as much as 4 inches. The above normal precipitation
areas saw surpluses up to 2 inches.

Some relief in dryness occurred during the last 3 months. The entire
service area received above normal precipitation. The vast majority
of the area received 150 to 300 percent of normal precipitation.

Departure from normal temperatures over the last couple months were
mainly 1 to 3 degrees above normal.

Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC shows soil moisture
ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the area. However
relative soil moisture data shows southeast Kansas has a slight lean
to be wetter than the rest of the service area.

Leading into the winter months, drought has greatly improved across
Kansas. Drought conditions started the summer of 2022 and seemed to
be at its worst in the spring of 2023 when Exceptional (D4) and
Extreme Drought (D3) covered two-thirds of the state. The latest U.S.
Drought Monitor issued the 15th of February 2024, now shows areas of
Moderate Drought (D1) and smaller areas of Severe Drought (D2) across
the service area. The remainder of the service area has either
Abnormally Dry conditions or drought-free areas especially in south
central Kansas.
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map
shows streams across southeast Kansas are experiencing above normal
to much above normal flows. Basins across central and south central
Kansas show a mix of below normal, normal, and above normal flows.
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)

The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is
slightly below normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of
their flood-control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall
events.

Future Conditions:

The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of April
2024,
indicates an improvement in drought conditions during the period.
Large areas within the current drought is expected to dissipate with
the remaining drought areas to remain but improve by at least 1
category.

Light snow is expected to affect parts of central Kansas late tonight
into Friday morning. Southeast Kansas will see slight chances of
light rain Friday morning. Thereafter, expecting no precipitation
chances through mid-week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
February-March-April shows equal chances of above normal, normal, or
below normal temperatures across Kansas. Precipitation-wise there is
a lean toward above normal precipitation.

The 8-14 day Outlook for the period February 19th through the 25th...
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC shows near normal temperatures
over most of the service area and slight lean toward below normal
temperatures across southeast Kansas. Near normal precipitation is
forecast for all of Kansas.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/15/2024 - 05/13/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  12    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  13    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  19   11   10    5   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  29   19    7   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  33   17   24    5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :   8   13    5    7   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :   7    8   <5    5   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :   9    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  10    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  13    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :   7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington          19.0   22.0   23.5 :  48   31   26   10    5   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  17   12    8    6   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  10    8    5   <5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :   9    7    7    6   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  10    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  27   21   17   13    5   <5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  14    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  25   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  27   19    6    5   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  18   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  26   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  13   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  20   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  30   19   19    9   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  25   18   10    5   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  23   22   <5    9   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  24   31   13   17   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  26   32   19   25   11   13
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  42   40   29   33   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  41   36   28   26    6    6
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :  <5   11   <5    6   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :   5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  11   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  10   24    5    8   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :   9   27    7   18   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  18   30    9   16    5    7
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   5    8   <5    5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/15/2024 - 05/13/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            0.7    0.7    0.9    2.8    5.2    7.3    9.5
Hutchinson            1.0    1.0    1.7    2.4    3.8    4.9    6.9
Haven                 2.0    2.1    3.4    4.5    6.1    7.9   10.8
Derby                 1.4    1.9    3.4    4.6    7.2   13.0   14.0
Mulvane               6.2    7.4    8.3    9.4   12.1   18.0   18.7
Oxford                8.3    9.1   10.8   11.8   15.4   20.1   21.2
Arkansas City         4.0    5.1    7.1    8.3   11.7   15.6   18.4
:Walnut Creek
Albert                3.9    3.9    3.9    8.0   13.3   21.2   24.7
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.1    4.1    4.1    9.3   13.5   16.9   18.0
Hutchinson            1.9    1.9    4.7    7.7   10.5   11.1   11.7
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            0.2    0.2    4.7    8.9   14.6   20.9   25.7
Halstead              5.8    5.9    8.8   12.5   16.8   23.1   27.0
Sedgwick              3.2    4.6    6.6    9.8   12.9   21.9   24.9
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.1    7.2   10.5   12.5   15.3   18.1   19.1
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               3.7    3.7    4.4    5.1    6.4    8.5    8.9
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  3.0    4.0    5.1    7.1   11.6   15.5   18.3
Belle Plaine          9.9   10.9   12.3   14.4   17.8   20.6   23.8
:Slate Creek
Wellington            4.7    5.4   10.5   18.8   22.2   22.8   23.6
:Whitewater River
Towanda               1.9    2.8    8.4   12.0   19.4   24.7   26.0
Augusta               3.9    5.1    7.7    9.4   13.1   21.3   25.3
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             6.7    7.2    8.0    8.8   12.6   20.5   23.2
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.4    2.8    3.5    5.4    9.2   12.8   13.5
Augusta               6.0    6.5    7.8    9.8   16.8   23.1   25.2
Winfield              2.0    3.7    6.7   10.2   19.0   25.2   29.3
Arkansas City         3.4    4.9    7.9   10.3   15.6   19.1   20.6
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.5    2.5    4.6    7.0   10.1   12.1   14.8
:Fall River
Fredonia              5.1    6.8    9.7   13.9   17.4   21.7   28.5
:Verdigris River
Altoona               5.6    6.7    8.6   12.7   18.3   19.8   20.6
Independence          8.3   10.1   13.9   20.4   30.5   38.0   40.0
Coffeyville           2.8    3.5    4.3    6.3   14.9   19.0   22.1
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.6    4.1    5.8    9.9   20.1   26.1   26.9
Cottonwood Falls      1.4    2.2    3.4    5.4   10.0   12.9   14.3
Plymouth              5.7    7.8   13.9   23.1   32.0   34.0   34.5
:Neosho River
Iola                  8.4    9.0    9.6   13.1   14.5   18.7   19.2
Chanute              11.7   11.8   14.6   19.8   22.8   30.5   31.9
Erie                 15.4   15.9   19.3   24.4   29.3   36.7   37.5
Parsons              11.2   11.4   15.3   19.9   23.8   26.8   28.4
Oswego                9.4    9.4   10.9   15.0   20.7   23.9   25.3
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.0    4.0    4.0    7.7    8.4   11.2   15.0
:Saline River
Lincoln              10.6   10.6   11.1   14.5   16.3   23.3   30.0
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.4    6.4    6.7    8.4   13.7   22.8   24.9
Mentor                3.8    4.0    4.5    6.4   12.1   19.9   23.4
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                3.8    3.8    4.3    5.9   12.4   23.5   26.7
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           9.6   10.3   13.9   19.3   25.0   29.7   33.0
Russell               3.6    3.6    4.4    6.3    8.9   11.4   15.0
Ellsworth             1.5    1.6    3.2    4.9    8.0   16.1   20.8
:Saline River
Russell               4.2    4.2    4.5    6.1    9.1   10.7   13.7


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of
flooding across the HSA this spring. A substantial part of this
assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the
seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that
does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and
placement of precipitation and thunderstorms.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
February 29th.

$$

Salazar
















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