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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000 FXUS62 KILM 160534 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 134 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather through midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a slight chance of showers towards later in the week. Rain chances may start to increase later in the weekend, with temperatures gradually starting to fall. && .UPDATE... Warm night underway with lows in the low 60s. 6z aviation forecast discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Other than the notable warmth quiet weather is expected through the period. Temperatures this afternoon have been running some 10 degrees above normal and very similar values are in the offering tomorrow. This is in response to surface high pressure off the coast and mid level ridging just to our west. The former providing the warmth in the low levels while the latter keeps the column extremely dry. For the same reasons tonight`s lows will have similarly warm deviations from climatology. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet forecast continues, with the offshore high pressure and Gulf ridging maintaining an influence on the area. Biggest thing to note is an increase in cloud cover this period, due to a weak cold front approaching from the west. Low levels still appear to be dry enough so as to not produce much rain. A couple sprinkles are possible Wednesday night at best. Highs Wednesday in the low-to-mid 80s inland, upper 70s at the coast. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak cold front moves through the area Thursday and Thursday night, which still appears to bring more cloud cover than rain chances. This front stalls offshore, before getting pushed back northward by Saturday as a warm front, which may actually bring some better rain chances to the area. By Sunday, a slightly stronger cold front moves through the area, bringing the best chances we`ve seen all week. High pressure looks to take over by the start of next week. Widespread 80s Thursday and Friday, with a few spots possibly hitting 90. Mid 80s Saturday, before clouds and rain knock down the highs into the mid 70s. Highs next Monday only in the upper 60s. Lows in the lower 60s Thursday through Saturday nights. Lows in the lower 50s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with few to scattered high clouds through morning and again tonight. A weak front drops into the area, cross southeast NC, this morning, with light southwest winds south of the front and more variable winds along the front. With inland temps forecasted to push 90F again, sea breeze will kick in midday around 10-15 kts. A stray shower or thunderstorm may impact northern parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but chances are low that they will move across ILM or LBT. Front lifts back north tonight, with potential for fog across Cape Fear region at the end of TAF period into Wednesday morning (ILM). Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...First day of wave detail being in the CWF! High pressure centered well offshore but with a ridge axis extending west into the Carolinas. This will keep the southerly component dominant, though a drifting of the ridge axis can lead to changes from SW to SE. Wind waves out of the south will combine with a SE swell coming around the western periphery of the high. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15kts linger through Thursday, with 2-3ft seas expected. A weak cold front moves through Thursday night before stalling over the area Friday, which initially creates more westerly winds, but then the direction varies throughout the day Friday. Southerly winds lock in by late Friday night through Saturday. Seas remain at 2-3ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MBB/IGB
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