Text Products for AFD Issued by IND

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 190704
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler but dry through Monday. Some frost potential mainly north
Sunday morning, more widespread frost possible Monday morning.

- Increasing rain chances next Tuesday, low chance for
  thunderstorms

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A broad/deep low over Canada forced a cold front through Indiana
overnight. MSLP gradient between the low over Quebec and high east
of the Rockies will be enough for breezy conditions today. Once
lingering PBL moisture and stratus depart, some midlevel stratus and
cirrus may remain peripheral to aforementioned departing low. Raw
model blend and higher resolution models may capture cold advection
regime better than biased corrected guidance given recent warm
pattern. Post-frontal continental air will be about 15 degrees
cooler than 24-hours prior.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday through Monday...

Pattern shift arrive this weekend with much cooler yet drier air.
After an extended period of well above normal temperatures for
April, temperatures dip below normal this weekend and through mid
next week as upper troughing sets up over Eastern North America with
multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. Will have to watch for the
potential for a few frosty mornings as well, especially for North
Central Indiana in the coming days.

Surface high pressure centered over Southern Alberta and Northern
Montana Saturday slides southward into the Southern Plains by Monday
morning keeping Indiana within a northwesterly flow pattern in the
lower levels. Cold air advection through the weekend will keep
temperatures below average with highs struggling to reach the 60
degree mark despite drier air and sunshine. Watching Sunday night
and Monday night for the potential for frost; however with the
center of the surface high well to the west, winds should remain
elevated enough to prevent widespread frost. Temps at 850mb drop to
0 to -4C Sunday and Monday morning. With such a cold airmass aloft,
lows still will likely drop into the mid to upper 30s, with any wind
sheltered area susceptible to colder temperatures and frost.
Greatest threat for frost will likely be Monday morning as the
pressure gradient and winds relax, leading to better conditions for
radiational cooling.

Other that potnetial for frost, no other hazards expected through
Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...

Brief ridging builds in Tuesday ahead of another upper trough diving
into the Great Lakes region from the northwest.  Warm air advection
ahead of the associated surface low tracking through Michigan should
lead to temperatures near average in the mid 60s, but with the
threat for rain. Sufficient moisture return combined with increasing
dynamics supports likely POPs on Tuesday. There is still timing
discrepancies between models regarding the speed of the front and
time of arrival for rainfall with the GFS being a good 6 hours
faster than the Euro or Canadian. Still think the highest PoPs will
be midday Tuesday, but will watch model trends closely and adjust
the timing of the expected rain in future forecast packages.

Cold air advection and surface high pressure building in behind the
departing low will allow for quiet weather conditions to return
briefly before another system approaches late next week.Another
chance for frost returns Thursday morning as high pressure becomes
centered over the Great Lakes. Watching North Central Indiana for
the best chance for frost. high pressure quickly pushes east with
numerous systems setting up for the end of the week and into the
weekend into the Great Plains. Expect a gradual moderating pattern
for temperatures late week and into next week with no chances for
frost after Thursday morning.

One thing to note, Indianapolis is already in the top 13 for wettest
April`s on record. Numerous chances for rainfall Tuesday, and then
again the weekend of April 27-28th will likely push Indianapolis at
least into the top 10 for wettest April`s on record.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR or briefly worse ceilings through early morning

- Winds will shift to northwesterly tonight

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will start around or shortly after 06z and could
briefly lower to IFR. Improving conditions are expected by early-mid
morning.

Winds will turn to the northwest and gust to near 25 knots through
this morning, behind the cold front. After that, winds will be
around 10 knots or so with only modest gusts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...BRB
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
