Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
464 FXUS63 KIWX 070017 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 817 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes are possible in any severe storms that develop. Heavy rain and minor flooding is possible. - Severe weather is possible again late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight, especially south of US 30. Damaging winds, hail, and localized flooding are the primary threats. Confidence is low at this time. - Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Powerhouse upper wave over the cntrl Rockies will close off across the wrn Dakotas before spinning out through the Great Lakes Thu-Fri. Downstream warm sector will broaden north into the OH valley tomorrow and support decaying plains leftovers Tue morning. Cloud debris and potential clearing in wake of morning activity will dictate possible late day svr risk but destabilization likely hindered here and which subdues overall svr risk. Ewd pinwheeling upper low and attendant cold front will progress into wrn areas Wed evening and ewd overnight. Strong/sharp return flow ahead of this along with proximity of sfc warm frontal zone general south of US24 may pose a resultant higher risk but potential outflow spoiler remnant from dy1 further south may squelch that risk. Nevertheless high chance to low likely pops retained in more favorable periods. Thereafter cool and showery as wrn flank of elongating upper low holds back through the srn lakes, reinforced by secondary disturbances digging down across the lakes Sat and again late Sun. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 807 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A low level ridge axis extending from central Ontario to the eastern Great Lakes will continue to shift across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will allow gradual veering low level flow into Tuesday and a northward migration to low level warm front across central US. Broad warm, moist advection ahead of this feature will lead to band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the 14Z-17Z timeframe. A brief lull in rain chances is possible behind this leading line, but conditions are expected to destabilize again during the afternoon Tuesday with additional scattered thunderstorm development. Still some question as to the coverage of these storms, but confidence is high enough to warrant a VCTS mention at this time for much of the afternoon. The potential does exist for a strong to severe storm with gusty winds and hail. In terms of cigs, VFR conditions are expected for tonight, but a brief window for some MVFR cigs is expected Tuesday morning through around midday accompanying the strong moisture advection from the south. By afternoon these cigs should mix out to VFR, with any additional MVFR or IFR conditions tied into any stronger thunderstorms. East-southeast winds to begin the period will veer south on Tuesday with gusts to around 20 knots possible. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...T AVIATION...Marsili