Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 170556
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
156 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Only minor tweaks to the forecast this evening, mainly just POPs
to account for a slight chance for a shower near the Duval area
over the next few hours.

Otherwise, a mild night is expected with temps dropping to near 60
north and 60s elsewhere. Winds should drop enough overnight for
some fog formation over northeast FL, especially near the I-75
corridor with more patchy cover elsewhere expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection is expected to initiate this afternoon along a stalled
boundary, located roughly between I10 and Waycross. The I10 corridor
and just north will become the focus for this activity this evening,
as the boundary shifts, and interaction with east coast sea breeze
takes place.

The convective activity will diminish after sunset. Low level
moisture advecting from the gulf is expected to result in low clouds
and fog overnight. The best chance for dense fog will be along the
I75 corridor.

Lows Tonight in the lower to mid 60s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A complex set up will be in place Sunday with several features at
play that may result in scattered thunderstorms, which could become
strong or even severe in isolated occurrences Sunday evening. A
stalled and diffuse frontal zone will linger along the FL/GA state
line. This feature should be initial focus of showers and isolated
storms during the late afternoon before the primary shortwave lifts
across the area Sunday evening and into early morning. With a
slightly later arrival, instability should begin to wane through the
evening, allowing the severe threat to rapidly trend lower after 9
PM as convection becomes elevated in nature. While surface-rooted
storms unfold through the first-half of the evening, the primary
concern will be straight-line winds, more so around 40-50 mph,
possibly near 60 mph for deeper convection, and small hail.
Otherwise, kinematics are lack-luster in regards to tornado
potential.

Come Monday the lead shortwave will quickly lift off to the
northeast as the parent trough begins to swing from the Great Lakes
region toward the Atlantic coast. As it does so, a cold front will
shift migrate southward through the area. Timing of the frontal
passage should allow for some instability and storms to develop
across north-central FL during the morning and early afternoon. Some
storms could become strong or marginally severe, again with the
primary threat being straight-line winds. This activity will
generally focus south of I-10, possibly even further south. Through
the day a drier, cooler airmass will spread in from the north and
relocate showers and storms into central FL. As high pressure
builds from the west and gradients tighten, a breezy northwest
winds will develop with gusts near the coast up to 30 mph with
lesser speeds inland.

The last seasonably warm day will occur Sunday ahead of the
approaching disturbance with decent mixing and highs pushing into
the 80s once again. As the front slides southward through Monday,
temps will trend closer to normal but range widely from the southern
to northern zones where mid/upper 60s and upper 70s to near 80
readings are expected, respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Drier and cooler airmass will follow in the wake of cold front
shifting off to the southeast to start the week as surface ridging
builds from the west leading to pleasant and much cooler conditions
Tuesday. Giving the strong cold advection, temperatures will crash
Monday night and push down into the mid/upper 30s across SE GA and
low to mid 40s in NE FL. Patchy frost appears to be unlikely given
borderline low temperatures in addition to lingering winds and dry
airmass.

A warm trending will commence Wednesday as high pressure shifts
overhead and then offshore late Wednesday. After the brief dry-
spell, another disturbance will lift from the Gulf and across the FL
peninsula between Thursday and Friday but there is still substantial
timing and intensity differences to begin to pin down any details at
this time. Does appear a trailing cold front will push into the
region Saturday, bringing another period of drier cooler weather
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low stratus will continue to move across NE FL, bringing lower
cigs over FL TAF sites overnight. Fog will bring some lower Vsbys
for a period of time in the predawn hours, LIFR and IFR likely.
Showers will start to move near TAF sites during early evening,
increasing in coverage after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A frontal boundary will be stalled across the area through Sunday.
This boundary will move to the southeast on Monday. High pressure
will build to the west northwest Monday night through Tuesday.
The high pressure ridge will build overhead Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Monday night
into Tuesday, and possibly Gales, due to gradient between the
exiting front and building high.

Rip Currents: Low through Sunday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A stalled front situated along the FL/GA state line will ignite
showers and isolated storms this afternoon before a low pressure
disturbance tracks along it Sunday, bringing scattered strong and
the potential for isolated severe storms during the evening and
overnight hours. A reinforcing cold front will be dragged
southeastward through the region Monday as the low quickly trails
off to the northeast. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass
is likely to lead to elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday and
again Wednesday. Patchy high daytime dispersions are expected amid
a breezy westerly transport flow this afternoon and again Sunday.
Strengthen northwesterly surface and transport winds will lead to
widespread high dispersions across inland southeast GA on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  55  68  36 /  70  80  10   0
SSI  78  59  70  40 /  60  80  30   0
JAX  85  61  73  40 /  50  70  40   0
SGJ  85  63  75  43 /  40  60  60   0
GNV  84  64  75  40 /  50  70  60   0
OCF  84  65  77  41 /  40  60  70   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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