Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181814
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
214 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024


.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon...Slow moving cold frontal boundary across NE FL
will continue to edge southward into Central FL ending the risk of
any significant thunderstorm activity, with shower/rainfall
chances ending by around sunset as they exit to the south and to
the east into the Atlantic. Temps are still expected to nudge
into the lower 70s this afternoon as sunny breaks develop in the
current cloud cover.

Tonight...Low pressure intensifying off the Carolinas will push a
strong trailing trough passage southward through SE GA/NE FL
during the late evening hours with a sharp increase in Northwest
to North winds to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-35mph inland and
up to 35-40 mph along the Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River
Basin/I-95 corridor, very close to Wind Advisory levels, but
always tough for nocturnal wind surges to outperform guidance so
will hold off on any issuance at this time. Otherwise skies will
become mostly clear overnight as the much drier and cooler airmass
arrives with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s across SE GA and
the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, with airmass too dry along
with too much mixing for any frost formation. Elsewhere along the
Atlantic Coast and rest of NE FL low temps will fall into the
lower 40s. These colder temps combined with the brisk NW-N winds
will support wind chill values as low as 30F across SE GA and the
I-10 corridor of North FL, but not quite low enough for Wind Chill
Advisory. Bottom Line: These will be some of the coldest temps
across the NE FL/SE GA region since February.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of
the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly
mild winds persisting through Wednesday. There is a possibility
for frost formation early Wednesday morning for some areas however
conditions for development are borderline so confidence at this
time is low. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and
rising into the lower 70s Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures
will similarly rise from out of the upper 30s up into the mid 40s
Wednesday night going into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The influence of high pressure will diminish and move off to the
east on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing on Friday as instability associated with a low pressure
system traveling across the Gulf of Mexico and then being
followed by a dry front bringing high pressure conditions over the
forecast area by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop
to be slightly below the seasonal average by the end of the week
but will return to normal levels by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conds expected at SSI through the period with an increase to
NW-N winds at 17G27 knots tonight from 01-11Z time frame.
Otherwise some lingering MVFR CIGS with last of rainfall at NE FL
TAF sites which should fade by the 20-22Z time frame with all
sites becoming VFR with lingering mid clouds through sunset.
Increase in NW-N winds expected at NE FL TAF sites around 02-03Z
to 14G24 knots at GNV/VQQ and 15G25 knots at JAX and 17G27 knots
at CRG/SGJ with decreasing winds to around 10 knots or so around
sunrise (12Z) and lingering through the last portion of the TAF
period with SKC developing in the 12-18Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move
across the area today with scattered to numerous showers through
the afternoon and into the evening. In the wake of the cold front,
a rapid increase in northwest to north winds is expected tonight
and will support gale force conditions with a gale warning is now
in effect. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure
to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the
dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance
arrives Thursday night which will increase winds and build seas
again through Friday.

Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot.
Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased
northerly winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley
and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor
flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at
Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  36  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  42  61  44 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  73  40  63  40 /  50   0   0   0
SGJ  73  44  61  43 /  90   0   0   0
GNV  74  41  66  39 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  77  42  66  39 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$


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