Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 161710
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
110 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few showers remain along a stalled boundary between I10 and
Waycross this morning. This boundary will be the focus for
a fairly narrow band of convection into the afternoon.

Away from this area, partly to mostly sunny skies for this
afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon will be above seasonal averages, with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Southwest winds will help to push
this warmer air to the beaches. But a cool down for beach
communities will be expected later in the afternoon as the sea
breeze pushes inland to near the I95 corridor.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today Through Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early morning patchy to areas of fog possible along the I-75
corridor and western north central FL will begin to clear by the
mid morning. To the northwest, the stalled frontal boundary is
expected to sit just over the northwestern edges of the area by
the afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, showers and isolated storms,
with a few strong storms possible, will begin to develop around
the mid afternoon. Showers/storms are expected to track from west
to east along and north of the FL/GA border as westerly flow will
continue through the day, keeping the Atlantic seabreeze pinned
along the coastal locations. Activity should begin to dwindle by
the evening.

Temperatures will again trend above average with temperatures expected
in the mid 80s and the lower 80s by the afternoon in NE FL and SE
GA, respectively. By the overnight hours, temperatures in the
lower 60s and mid/upper 60s over SE GA and NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday, the morning starts off with relatively quiet with some morning
stratus and some areas of fog, especially northeast FL. A cold
front will be across the TN valley and off the Mid Atlantic coast
and another weaker frontal boundary laying along the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast and across srn GA, with a frontal wave around srn
LA. One primary shortwave perturbation will be across LA, and
will move east through the day and to our forecast area by Sunday
evening. The front over south GA will slowly shift north during
the day as a frontal wave and greater synoptic lift approach the
area in the afternoon and evening. Some isolated convection will
be possible through the morning and early afternoon, but the main
action will be in the afternoon and Sunday night as the greater
lift and associated frontal wave move across the area. Overall,
the best chances of precip will be across the nrn 2/3rds of the
area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Convective allowing
models show an MCS moving across the nrn Gulf Sunday afternoon and
to the central FL panhandle by late afternoon. If this system
continues to develop and becomes enhanced, we could see a few
strong and/or possibly severe storms late Sunday afternoon into
late Sunday evening, posing mainly a damaging wind threat with a
tornado also possible. SPC has placed the central parts of our
forecast area in a marginal risk of severe storms, with a damaging
wind threat, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. The threat
for showers and storms will persist through at least midnight
before waning in the early morning hours as early  morning fog
possible during the early hours for inland locations as well as
coastal TAF sites. Fog should lift by the afternoon with showers
possible during the mid afternoon for the northern TAF sites,
clearing by the early evening hours. the frontal wave moves
offshore with the shortwave perturbation moves east, and the cold
front shifts southward over the area. Highs on Sunday expected to
reach mid to upper 80s eastern FL zones and lower 80s elsewhere.
The front is expected to be crossing over the area Sunday night
and be over the southeast zones by 12z Monday. Cooler air will be
arriving from the northwest in its wake, with lingering precip
still anticipated overnight hours.

Monday...lingering showers and a few storms could be ongoing
Monday morning over south zones as the front continues to press
southeast over the FL peninsula. Clearing and northwest flow
expected rest of the day with cooler max temps. When rainfall
period (i.e., Sun-Mon) ends by midday Monday, rainfall amounts
look to be around the 0.5 to 1 inch range, but higher amounts up
to 1-2 inches are possible near the FL/GA border.

Monday night, breezier northwest flow and cleared skies and much
cooler as cool high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Surface high builds over the region Tuesday and then begins to
shift south of the area Tuesday night though Wednesday. The next
mid to upper level trough in the srn stream will be across the
southwest CONUS on Wednesday and move downstream toward our area
Thursday, with a warm front lifting up toward our area Thursday
night. Plentiful moisture and lift is forecast to pass over the
area Thursday into Friday, though the GFS and the ECMWF have
significant differences on the timing of the trough and sfc low
reflection moving across the southeast CONUS. Consensus view
looks like the system moves through late Friday/Friday night and
offshore of the southeast U.S. coast by 12z Saturday. At least
chance POPs look in store for Thursday night, and more elevated
chance for early Friday. Rain chances appear to diminish by Friday
night as the system moves offshore.

Temps: Cool on Tuesday with highs in the 60s, and then a warm trending
will commence Wednesday as high pressure south of the area brings
a west or southwest flow. Temps generally look to be close to
normal Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
along a stalled boundary, mainly affecting the KVQQ, KJAX, KCRG
sites, and possibly KSSI. Utilizing VCTS at this time for these
sites since low chance, and will refine once activity develops.

Low stratus and fog is expected to develop Tonight and move
northeast into the region overnight. While each TAF site will have
the potential for lowering conditions overnight, the greatest
potential will be inland at KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front will be nearly stationary near or over local waters
through the weekend. This will lead to chances for showers and
t`storms, with higher chances on Sunday and Monday. The front will
shift south of the coastal waters by Monday, increasing winds and
seas in it`s wake Monday night into Tuesday, with small craft
advisory necessary for Monday night. High pressure will then build
into the area from the northwest on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk through the weekend for area
beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Main headline at this time is the patchy high dispersion values
today and Sunday. This is mainly across northeast FL, and
possibly into a small portion of southeast GA. Much lower
humidities are not expected until next week, Tuesday and
Wednesday, after the frontal passage from late Sunday night/Monday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley
and is forecast at Charlotte and Everett City, with rest at Minor
flooding. Minor flooding is also forecast for Satilla River at
Atkinson. Additional rainfall through the weekend will keep these
rivers elevated into early to the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  80  54  67 /   0  80  80  10
SSI  64  77  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
JAX  64  84  60  73 /  20  60  70  30
SGJ  65  83  62  73 /  10  30  50  40
GNV  65  85  62  75 /  10  40  60  40
OCF  64  85  65  76 /  10  30  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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