Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 160100
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
900 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

After a very warm day with near record highs in some areas, clouds
will generally increase overnight as the remnants of showers and
t`storms currently over interior southeast GA progress
southeastward. Expecting T`storm activity currently in progress
over interior GA to subside over the next few hours as some
instability is lost, though a few isolated showers will still be
possible into the morning, mainly north of I-10. Patchy to areas
of fog also expected to develop overnight areas around the I-75
corridor, and could be enough for a dense fog advisory later
tonight.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Light showers have been moving across SE GA this afternoon, with
more showers and isolated thunderstorm chances beginning in the
early evening for interior southeast Georgia. Strong winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm
development this evening, with most activity simmering down around
10pm. Patchy fog will likely develop along the I-75 corridor pre-
dawn, lifting after sunrise. Tonight, low temperatures will be
mild in the mid 60s area-wide after all of NE FL and SE GA reached
the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Seasonably warm temps and a stalled frontal boundary will yield
chances for diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday,
mainly along and north of I-10. On Sunday a wave of low pressure
will ride along the diffuse frontal zone, leading to higher rain
chances across the region. Scattered t`storms will be possible and
will focus along the aforemention boundary, which appears to stall
near the FL/GA border. Marginal instability and deep shear will be
in place, particularly on Saturday, which could lead to a few strong
storms capable but the overall threat for severe storms remains
remote. A reinforcing cold front will sweep southeastward behind the
passing wave of low pressure Sunday night into Monday and send
lingering convection southward into north-central and central FL.

Southwesterly flow through the weekend will keep the Atlantic sea
breeze locked to the immediate coast and possibly offshore. Though
potential showers and increasing cloud cover will have influence,
temps should warm into toward the mid 80s across NE FL while lower
80s will be more common across SE GA each day this weekend.

Given the low level moisture, the potential for inland morning fog
is expected. The nature should be fairly patchy given stirring winds
but locally dense fog is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Drier and cooler airmass will follow in the wake of cold front
shifting off to the southeast to start the week as surface ridging
builds from the west leading to pleasant and much cooler conditions
Tuesday. A warm trending will commence Wednesday as high pressure
shifts overhead and then offshore late Wednesday. After the brief
dry-spell, another disturbance will lift from the Gulf and across
the FL peninsula between Thursday and Friday but there is still
substantial timing and intensity differences to begin to pin down
any details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR currently prevails at all sites with mostly mid and high
clouds over the area. SHRA over interior GA will weaken as they
move southeastward ahead of a cold front overnight, with just
VCSH expected at all terminals. Did include prevailing -RA at SSI
where precip has a better chance of holding together. Low stratus
and/or fog will be likely at all sites by the morning, with the
best chance for IFR and LIFR being at GNV and VQQ into the morning
hours. Closer to the coastal sites including JAX, there is more
uncertainty with IFR possible. For now, have included MVFR
ceilings only, though certainly should be noted that IFR ceilings
may need to be added into the next fcst.

Ceilings lift through Saturday morning, with VFR expected for the
rest of the fcst period. Isolated SHRA will be possible at
terminals south of SSI during the afternoon, though not expected
to have significant impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

High pressure will continue to move off toward the Atlantic as a
cold front will approaches the southeastern CONUS today. As the
front stalls near or over the area this weekend, a return of
showers and storms is expected for the local waters Sunday and
Monday. The front will shift south of the coastal waters on
Monday, leaving elevated winds and seas in it`s wake Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the area
from the northwest on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL today, followed
by a low risk for NE FL and SE GA Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A stalled front, initially to the north tonight, will slowly sink
southward through the weekend before a reinforcing cold front sweeps
across the region Sunday night into Monday. Showers and isolated
storms, some potentially becoming strong, are expected to develop
each afternoon this weekend. Next week, a drier and cooler airmass
behind the front is likely to lead to elevated fire weather
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday due to breezy north winds and near
critical afternoon humidity. Fair to Excellent smoke dispersions are
expected amid the southwesterly to westerly flow through the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Moderate flooding expected on the Altamaha river at Baxley and
Everett City, with rest at Minor flooding. Minor flooding
is also forecast for Satilla River at Atkinson. Additional
rainfall through the weekend will keep these rivers elevated into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  84  63  81 /  60  20  10  70
SSI  64  80  63  77 /  30  20   0  40
JAX  65  85  64  84 /  10  20   0  40
SGJ  64  85  64  84 /  10  10   0  20
GNV  63  85  63  84 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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