Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 150154
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
954 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Ridging aloft this afternoon, low level ridging to the south
across central Fl and mid to upper level ridging over NE FL and
SE GA, provided dry conditions for most locations leading into
this evening with only a few spots along the NE FL coast from
Jacksonville Beach south to St Augustine and Flagler Beach with
dewpoints reaching at or above 60 degrees while dewpoints remained
in the 40s and 50s elsewhere. Given a slightly drier forecast
have adjusted areas of fog to hold off until after midnight along
the immediate coast with some patchy fog starting along I-95 and
after midnight. A dense fog advisory may be needed late tonight
close to sunrise for the coastal immediate communities across NE
FL and SE GA, potentially to the St Johns river basin. Light
easterly winds 4-8 mph will turn southerly overnight before
turning calm under mostly clear skies which should aid fog
developments. Lows will cool into the mid to upper 50s inland and
near 60 along the coast and north central FL.

Ridging will shift eastward into the western Atlantic Friday
with southwesterly winds and increasing clouds in the afternoon
as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. A few
showers may form along a pinned Atlantic seabreeze across the I-95
corridor of NE FL while a broken line of showers sinks ESE from
central GA towards SE GA by the late afternoon with an isolated
T`storm possible north of I-10. Highs will reach the mid 80s over
SE GA and the upper 80s over NE FL away from the coast with upper
70s to near 80s at the beaches behind the Seabreeze as southeast
winds run off the cooler shelf waters currently in the low/mid
60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly sunny skies and calm winds will continue through this
evening along with temperatures above normal. Tonight, fog is
expected to develop over much of southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida, with areas of dense fog most likely impacting the
coast/I-95 corridor pre-dawn. Patchy dense fog may be able to push
as far inland as the I-75 corridor before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday, highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s inland with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s along the Atlantic coast.
Friday afternoon, PWAT values begin to increase from less than an
inch to a little over 1.5 inches as moisture is pushed in from
the approaching cold front. Day time heating and an upper level
shortwave trough will create enough instability for the increased
moisture to produce scattered rain and thunderstorms in the early
evening and continuing overnight for SE GA and NE FL, along and
north of I-10 and I-295.

Saturday, scattered rain showers will begin in the morning
generally along and north of I-10, with high temperatures reaching
the 80s by mid day. Day time heating will help trigger scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, which will
fade overnight. Temperatures overnight will fall into the 60s
area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A cold front will slowly sweep through SE GA/NE FL beginning
Sunday morning and work its way south by Monday evening, allowing
for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms during that time
period. Temperatures will dip into the mid 50s for SE GA and mid
60s for NE FL behind the cold front. Tuesday will have mostly
clear skies as a high pressure system moves in over the area,
cooling temperatures into the 60s. Temperatures will begin to warm
back up into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday as the high
pressure system moves off shore into the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The 00Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions, lower to IFR
and LIFR ceilings and visibility levels along the coast and into
the duval terminals before sunrise, then improve to VFR levels
after 14Z at all sites through the end of the period.

After initial mostly clear skies with some cirrus clouds aloft
expect sea fog and radiational fog to combine from near SGJ and
spread north and west to CRG, SSI, JAX, VQQ and potentially
near GNV from 06Z to 10Z, lowering into IFR ceilings and
visibility with TEMPO LIFR ceilings and visibility at CRG, SSI,
JAX, and VQQ while SGJ may see restrictions for VLIFR ceilings
and visibility due to dense sea fog from 09Z-13Z. Also MVFR
ceilings will reach GNV from 10Z to 13Z.

Thereafter, fog and low ceilings should lift with south to
southwest winds as high pressure shifts to the east of the region
with VFR conditions resuming. Increasing moisture will yield more
mid and high level clouds by afternoon as a cold front approaches
the region from the northwest with VCSH noted at SSI as a line of
prefrontal showers arrives from the west late in the afternoon
towards the SE GA coast. Some showers may form along a pinned
Atlantic seabreeze over the duval TAF sites and SGJ, but chances
too low to include for this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic today will retreat on
Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front
will then be stalled near, or over the area throughout the weekend
bringing a return of showers and storms to the coastal waters.
The front will shift south of the coastal waters on Monday. Winds
and seas increase to small craft advisory levels in the wake of
the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Minor flooding continues on the Altamaha river with Baxley and
Everett City expected to reach moderate flood stage Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  86  64  82 /   0  30  40  30
SSI  59  75  63  79 /   0  20  40  30
JAX  56  85  65  84 /   0  30  30  20
SGJ  60  83  64  84 /   0  30  10  10
GNV  58  87  63  85 /   0  20  10  10
OCF  60  86  63  84 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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