Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 141010
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
610 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Fog advects northeastward from the Gulf across inland NE FL and
SE GA early this morning. Dense fog will be possible across
Suwannee Valley around sunrise. Another quiet and warm day is in
store with high pressure situated over the western Atlantic. The
Atlantic sea breeze will shift further inland this afternoon under
light south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures today will warm
above normal with highs in the mid 70s along the coast to the low-
mid 80s further inland. High pressure begins to retreat tonight
as a cold front moves into the lower MS river valley. Low-level
moisture continues to increase from south to north with dewpoints
rising into the upper 50s in SE GA and low 60s in NE FL. Tonight,
light winds and mainly clear skies will lead to patchy to areas
of fog developing in the nearshore waters and along the NE FL
coast and shifting inland across the area. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday...Much above normal temps continue with highs in the mid/upper
80s over inland areas and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast as
warm SW flow runs up the back side of the Western Atlantic ridge
and models are suggesting enough moisture ahead of approaching
frontal boundary over the SE US will trigger scattered afternoon
showers and storms across most of SE GA late in the day, with some
isolated showers/storms as far south as the I-10 corridor with
some interaction with the East coast sea breeze as it pushes
inland to the I-95 corridor. Severe weather is not expected but a
few stronger storms with gusty winds to 40 mph and brief heavy
rainfall are possible.

Friday Night...A few evening showers/isolated storms, mainly across
SE GA, then fair skies during the overnight hours and a light SW
flow off the moist Gulf will support another round of localized
dense fog potential with best chances across inland NE FL, mainly
along the I-75 corridor with low temps only falling into the
lower/middle 60s.

Saturday...Low pressure development on frontal boundary across the
Carolinas will shift frontal boundary slightly southward into SE
GA with diurnal heating into the lower to middle 80s triggering
scattered showers and isolated storms area-wide by the afternoon
hours that will likely interact with East Coast sea breeze pinned
close to the I-95 corridor by the late afternoon hours. Severe
weather is not expected but a few stronger storms with gusty winds
to 40 mph and brief heavy rainfall are possible.

Saturday Night...Any convection expected to fade after sunset and
moisture pooling in the low levels near the frontal boundary in
the light W-SW flow will support another night of areas of fog
with localized dense fog potential after midnight. Mild overnight
lows in the lower/middle 60s continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Sunday/Monday...Still general model agreement with upstream shortwave
kicker to develop another low pressure system over the Mid
Atlantic/Carolinas with trailing frontal boundary pushing through
the local SE GA/NE FL region sometime this period with numerous
showers and embedded storms, along with some locally heavy
rainfall potential depending on how fast or slow the frontal
boundary progresses across the region. Temps will remain at above
normal levels on Sunday in the lower to middle 80s, but likely
closer to normal in the 70s on Monday as the frontal boundary
passes through the region. Severe weather is not expected at this
time, but a few isolated stronger storms with wind/small hail
possible depending on time of day frontal passage occurs.

Tuesday...Much cooler temps arrive as high pressure builds NW of
the region and expect below normal values to arrive as early as late
Monday Night and continue on Tuesday night. Max temps will likely
only rebound into the 60s on Tuesday, while overnight lows will
generally be in the 40s, although some model solutions are
supporting some upper 30s possible over inland SE GA, but the risk
of any Frost appears to the remain low at this time.

Wednesday...Cool high pressure builds into the region with temps
at slightly below normal values with highs in the upper 60s SE GA
and lower 70s NE FL under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Fog has developed across GNV, VQQ, and SSI this morning lowering
VSBYs into IFR/LIFR. Fog will lift and dissipate by 14Z. Easterly
winds between 5-10 kts develop after 17Z as the Atlantic sea
breeze pushes inland. Meanwhile, light south- southwesterly winds
develop at GNV in the afternoon. Chances for fog will be possible
at all TAF sites after 06Z with potential IFR/LIFR VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic today will retreat on
Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front
will then be stalled near, or over the area throughout the weekend
bringing a return of showers and storms to the coastal waters.
The front will shift south of the coastal waters on Monday. Winds
and seas increase to small craft advisory levels in the wake of
the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continue for area
beaches through Friday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Minor flooding continues on the Altamaha river with Baxley and
Everett City expected to reach moderate flood stage Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  56  85  63 /   0   0  30  40
SSI  73  60  75  63 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  80  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  78  63  82  63 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  85  61  87  62 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  85  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-035-
     120-220-236-322-422-522.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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