Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 140508
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
108 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure centered to the east, will continue to ridge across
the region overnight. A dry night is forecast. Low level moisture
will advect in from the Gulf this evening, resulting in fog
formation inland overnight. The fog may spread all the way to the
coast toward dawn, but the best chance for dense fog will be
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Ridging aloft will amplify briefly in the wake of a shortwave
passing well off the east coast and surface high pressure ridge
axis will lift north of the area creating light east to SE winds
for much of the area as the Atlantic seabreeze presses well inland.
This will serve to keep the beaches and immediate coastal areas
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to areas west of the St Johns
river which will rise to the mid 80s with upper 80s over north
central FL.

Thursday night, light winds and mainly clear skies will patchy to
areas of fog which may develop along the NE FL coast and shift
inland as dewpoints creep up in to the mid 60s late Thursday. Lows
will be in the upper 50s over SE GA and the lower 60s over NE FL.

Friday, ridging aloft will quickly shift ENE of the region and a
low amplitude shortwave will lift NE from TX Gulf coast into the
TN river valley as a broad mid/upper trough shifts east across the
Great Lakes towards the interior NE States. This will support a
surface cold front that will move east from the lower MS valley
into the deep south states which will approach our area from the
NW late in the day Friday. Moisture will increase to above normal
levels due to WSW flow in the low and mid levels while surface
high pressure ridge axis shifts south into NE FL as the high
positions itself ENE of the region near Bermuda and allow an
afternoon seabreeze to encroach inland to near I-95 and the
St Johns river. The seabreeze may kick of a spotty shower or
two, but scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined
over SE GA. Severe weather not expected with storms on Friday.
Highs will be warmer along the coast Friday into the upper 70s
to lower 80s with mid to upper 80s over inland locations up into
SE GA.

Friday night, light southwest winds will allow for some patchy fog
potential off of the Gulf of Mexico into far inland portions of
NE FL west of highway 301 with areas of fog along and west of I-75.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Saturday, the cold front will stall as mid to upper level support
races off the east coast with less shortwave energy available to
support organized showers and thunderstorms, so less rainfall
amounts expected late Saturday with scattered showers forming
mainly along the remnant frontal boundary.

Sunday, broad northern troughing will deepen south and east from
the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes towards the mid MS river
valley while cutoff southern stream trough will spin over the
desert southwest with stronger shortwave energy lifting NE from the
western Gulf of Mexico along the Gulf towards the region. This
will help develop a wave of low pressure that will move from the
TX Gulf coast east towards the mouth of the MS river. Ahead of
the low scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
shift into SE GA and NE FL by the afternoon. Showers will increase
in coverage over SE GA Sunday night as the front begins to push
southward again as a cold front. Strong T`storm potential with
the activity late Sunday into Sunday night as mid level 500 mb
temperatures cool to -13-15 degrees Celsius and steeper mid
level lapse rates may support some hail development in storms.
Breezy southwest winds will resume as low moves in from the
west.

Monday, the cold front will sink south through NE FL, then exit
by Monday night as high pressure builds from the NW with showers
and a few storms ending from north to south. The high will build
towards the region Tuesday into Wednesday with a drier airmass
and dry conditions into midweek next week.

Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday and Sunday,
near normal Monday into Monday night, and then trend below normal
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Calm winds continue overnight with a chance of fog for GNV, VQQ
and SSI in the pre-dawn hours. Easterly winds between 5-10 kts develop
after 17Z as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Meanwhile,
light south-southwesterly develop at GNV in the afternoon. Chances
for fog will be possible at all TAF sites after Friday 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through Thursday
and then sink to the southeast on Friday as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. This front will then stall near, or over the area
throughout the weekend while gradually weakening. A stronger cold
front will move SE across the area Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues for area
beaches through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Fair dispersions expected this afternoon and for inland areas on
Monday with low dispersions along the coast due to lower mixing
heights. Increasing south to southwest transport winds and mixing
heights will create good dispersions on Friday area wide. Min RH
values will lower to 27-32 percent over far inland Southeast
Georgia on Thursday afternoon, then recover Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  85  64 /   0   0  30  40
SSI  73  60  77  62 /   0   0  20  30
JAX  80  59  85  65 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  62  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  86  60  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  85  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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