560
FXUS62 KJAX 290600
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Periods of IFR visibilities are expected overnight at VQQ. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail at the regional terminals.
Broken ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet are expected to develop on
Monday, mainly during the morning hours at the SGJ and SSI coastal
terminals, with this cloud cover then shifting inland during the
afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes quickly inland.
Isolated showers during the late afternoon and early evening hours
will develop west of the GNV terminal as the Atlantic and Gulf
coast sea breezes collide west of Interstate 75. East-
southeasterly surface winds will remain sustained around 10 knots
through the morning hours at the coastal terminals, while speeds
inland decrease to around 5 knots or less. South-southeasterly
surface winds will develop shortly after sunrise at the inland
terminals, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 knots by
16Z. East-southeasterly winds will then increase to around 15
knots and gusty at the coastal terminals in the wake of the inland
moving sea breeze by 19Z, with speeds inland increasing to 10-15
knots by 21Z. Surface winds will then shift to south-southeasterly
after 01Z Tuesday, with speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots inland and
remaining around 10 knots at the coastal terminals.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Lowered wind speeds with the update, otherwise forecast remains
on track. Low winds and clear skies during the overnight will see
the possibility for patchy fog to develop along inland locations.
Kept the chance for isolated showers along the coast as onshore
flow continues through the night. Lows ranging from the upper 50s
along inland areas to lower 60s near coastal areas and along the
St. Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday, the mid to upper level ridge pattern over the Mid-Atlantic
region south into eastern NC will support surface surface high
pressure sinking southward from near the SE US coast into our area.
This will bring south to southeasterly low level flow and and moist
low levels over the area with marine stratocumulus clouds skirting
a bit more south to north with isolated light showers paralleling
the coast over the nearshore waters and silent pops along I-95 for
any short lived quick showers that move just onshore before fading
as dry mid level air shifting in from the western Atlantic prevents
much depth/organization to any showers. Highs will be cooler at the
coast with Atlantic seabreeze turning winds east southeasterly
10-15 mph and southerly 8-12 mph farther inland with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 along the coast and mid 80s west of I-95.

Monday night, the drier air aloft will create mostly clear skies.
SE winds remaining high enough to prevent fog at 5-10 mph. Lows
will be in the low to mid 60s inland and the upper 60s along the
coast.

Tuesday, the mid to upper ridging will shift into western Atlantic
waters as a weak, remnant southern stream shortwave trough moves
into the southern Appalachians from the TN valley. This will allow
moisture to rebound to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches of PWAT due to
southerly low level flow as high pressure moves away to the east.
This will be enough to generate isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as both Atlantic and Gulf seabreeze merge inland
near the US17 and highway 301 corridors. Highs will be warmer
with low 80s at the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.

Tuesday night, isolated showers and T`storms should fade after
sunset with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly clear late. South
to southwest winds may allow for some low stratus to advect in
from the Gulf, but enough low level flow may prevent fog from
forming over western areas. Lows will be in the mid 60s inland
and the upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Wednesday, winds will become more west southwesterly as a trough
sinks across the area. The Atlantic seabreeze will be more pinned
between US 17 and I-95 ahead of the trough with isolated showers
or even a T`storm in the afternoon to early evening. Highs will
approach 90 inland and be cooler in the low to mid 80s at the
coast.

Thursday, drier air will filter in as high pressure builds down
from the Mid Atlantic states and created ENE winds over the area
and mostly sunny skies. With the drier air aloft, no showers
expected, but highs will be warmer inland in the low 90s with
low/mid 80s along the coast in the onshore flow.

Friday into the weekend, easterly flow will gradually veer to
southerly with isolated showers and T`storms over SE GA while
a cold front nearly stalls across the deep south. Highs will
approach 90 inland and the low to mid 80s at the coast. Lows
during the period will be in the low to mid 60s inland and the
upper 60s to near 70 at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Combined seas continue to slowly subside to 4 to 6 feet this
afternoon and will drop the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headlines
with the next forecast issuance, but will keep Small Craft
Exercise Caution (SCEC) headline in place due to seas of 4 to 6
feet through tonight, mainly for the offshore waters. Otherwise
with the High pressure ridge over the Carolinas expect southeast
winds in the 10-15 knot range to continue through Monday before
the ridge axis weakens but slides southward into the local marine
waters Tuesday/Wednesday with winds becoming southerly and seas
continuing to subside to 2 to 4 feet, while local sea breeze will
continue along the Atlantic Coast. This pattern will continue
through the end of the week with no headlines expected at this
time.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will likely linger into
Monday with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft continuing, with a shift
downward to Moderate Risk on Tuesday/Wednesday with surf/breakers
in the 2-4 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  62  87  64 /   0   0  20  20
SSI  79  66  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  83  64  85  66 /   0   0  20  10
SGJ  81  65  84  66 /   0  10  20  10
GNV  87  63  86  64 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  87  63  87  63 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$