Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
000
FXUS62 KJAX 131035
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
635 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue
southwesterly flow across the area. A weak shortwave trough aloft
moves across the region today increasing cloud cover this
afternoon. Despite low-level moisture increasing, the airmass will
remain too dry to support showers today. Highs today will soar to
the upper 70s into the low 80s even to the Atlantic coast since
the Atlantic seabreeze will be pinned to the coast. Skies gradually
clear overnight as the shortwave exits the region. Light to calm
winds coupled with a mainly clear sky and increasing surface
moisture should allow for patchy to areas of fog to develop area-
wide. Some localized dense fog will be possible towards sunrise
Thursday morning mainly over Suwannee Valley. Overnight lows will
be slightly warmer in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Thursday...High pressure shifts into the Western Atlantic and surface
flow becomes more SE and temps shift to well above normal levels
with highs into the lower/middle 80s inland, while East Coast sea
breeze pushes inland and keep Atlantic beaches in the 70s. Still
not enough moisture for rainfall chances higher than around 10% as
the sea breeze pushes inland each day.
Thursday Night...Increasing low level moisture in the S-SW steering
flow will support milder overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower
60s along with better chances for overnight fog potential, with
localized dense fog coverage increasing along with dew points
reaching high enough for some fog to form along the Atlantic Coast
by early Friday morning.
Friday...Much above normal temps continue with highs in the mid/upper
80s over inland areas and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast as
warm SW flow runs up the back side of the Western Atlantic ridge
and models are suggesting enough moisture ahead of approaching
frontal boundary over the SE US will trigger scattered afternoon
showers and storms across most of SE GA late in the day, with some
isolated showers/storms as far south as the I-10 corridor with
some interaction with the East coast sea breeze as it pushes
inland to the I-95 corridor.
Friday Night...A few evening showers/isolated storms, mainly
across SE GA, then fair skies during the overnight hours and a
light SW flow off the moist Gulf will support another round of
localized dense fog potential with best chances across inland NE
FL, mainly along the I-75 corridor with low temps only falling
into the lower/middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Saturday/Sunday...Models still on track for much above normal temps this
period with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and lower 80s at
the Atlantic beaches, along with lows only falling into the 60s
at night. Models still struggling with details on frontal boundary
pushing into the SE US and stalling for the most part just NW of
the region with some model solutions pushing brief periods of
moisture into SE GA and even NE FL that may be enough to trigger
scattered showers/isolated storms, mainly diurnal in nature that
may develop in the deeper moisture across SE GA and also along sea
breeze boundaries across NE FL during the afternoon and evening
hours. Periods of overnight/early morning fog can be expected as
well, along with some sea fog potential as dew points approach and
slightly exceed current ocean temps.
Sunday Night/Monday...Some general agreement with upstream shortwave
kicker to develop low pressure over the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas
with trailing frontal boundary pushing through the local SE GA/NE
FL region sometime this period with numerous showers and embedded
storms, along with some locally heavy rainfall potential depending
on how fast or slow the frontal boundary progresses across the
region. Temps will remain at above normal levels, but not as warm
as the weekend values. Severe weather is not expected at this
time, but a few isolated stronger storms with wind/small hail
possible depending on time of day frontal passage occurs.
Tuesday...Much cooler temps arrive as high pressure builds NW of
the region and expect below normal values to arrive as early as
late Monday Night and continue on Tuesday night. Max temps will
likely only rebound into the 60s on Tuesday, while overnight lows
will generally be in the 40s, although some model solutions are
supporting some mid to upper 30s possible over inland SE GA, with
some low risk of patchy frost by sunrise Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Brief MVFR restrictions will be possible around sunrise at GNV and
VQQ. Otherwise, light and variable winds and VFR conditions prevail
through 00Z. The Atlantic sea breeze will be slow to shift inland
this afternoon due to west-southwesterly flow. Winds calm tonight
with chances for fog development between 08-12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through Thursday
and then sink to the southeast on Friday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This front will then be stalled
near, or over the area throughout the weekend bringing a return of
showers and storms to the coastal waters. The front will shift
south of the coastal waters on Monday.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area
beaches through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 77 48 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 73 55 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 80 54 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 79 58 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 55 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 81 57 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$