749
FXUS62 KJAX 081037
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
637 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridging extending outward from over the Florida
peninsula will dominate the weather pattern today for the
southeastern US with mostly clear skies and overhead subsidence
inhibiting the development of diurnal sea breeze showers. Patchy
to dense early morning fog developments will become dispersed by
midmorning. High temperatures over inland areas today will reach
up into the lower to mid 90s and into the upper 80s and lower 90s
along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The forecast Thursday afternoon and evening is fairly complex and
contains an unusually high degree of uncertainty. HiRes CAMs have
latched onto reinvigorating an MCS as it tracks across SE GA.
With the MCS arriving around the time of peak heating, instability
will build to sufficient levels as deep shear increases to around
to 30- 40 kts. These ingredients should support the chance for a
few more intense storms that may reach severe limits and be
capable of straight-line winds 50-60 mph, hail, and possibly an
isolated tornado. Uncertainty is quite high as the MCS timing and
track will be crucial to how far south the severe threat will
extend. The SPC has extended the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to the
I-10 corridor and a Marginal risk farther south into north-
central FL. The severe threat will wane Thursday evening as
activity moves offshore.

After a brief lull in the storms Thursday night, a second MCS
feature will push in from the west and is a bit slower in it`s
arrival compared to 24 hrs ago. Now this MCS appears to reach inland
areas of SE GA and Suwannee Valley around daybreak Friday at the
earliest, though there is still a fair amount of discrepancies
regarding the timing. This will bring another potential for
scattered strong to severe storms capable of all hazards once
again. The cold front will finally push through Friday night and
continue the chance for scattered storms across northeast and
north-central FL through about midnight. Before the storms arrive
in NE FL, tightening gradients will lead to breezy southwest winds
during the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 mph south of I-10.

In addition to severe storm potential, hot temperatures with near
triple-digit heat index values are expected Thursday before
convection arrives. High temps will push into the mid 90s and
challenge daily records across the region. Increasing cloud cover
and the potential for storms earlier in the day will cap heating
to to mid 80s in SE GA and upper 80s to 90 in NE FL on Friday.|

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Cooling temps and lowering humidity will lead to comfortable
conditions this weekend as high pressure builds from the north. A
wet, stormy and unsettled weather returns again next week as
southerly flow attempts to lift the old frontal boundary
northward. As it does so, several shortwave disturbance are
expected to lift across the region leading to scattered to
numerous showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will trend cooler but hover near normal through the weekend. Next
week temperature forecasts are much trickier as cloud cover and
several waves of rain/storms appear likely. That said, heating
should be hampered and diurnal ranges should be compressed,
keeping afternoon highs below normal and lows above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Southwest flow off the Gulf bringing in low cloud decks and
MVFR/IFR fog at GNV/VQQ is expected to disperse before 13z. Winds
will build from out of the SW this afternoon with the SE diurnal
sea breeze remaining pinned close to the coast. Winds will become
more mild for sites during the overnight hours and into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area
through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times.
Offshore winds develop by Thursday night as a cold front
approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to
cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold
front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday
ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly
winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into
Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for area beaches through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two inspired by the sea
breeze are possible this afternoon. After today, hotter and drier
conditions prevail under a building ridge of high pressure
Wednesday and Thursday before a late season cold front arrives
Friday. Strengthening surface and transport winds from the
southwest ahead of the front will build dispersion each day
through Friday. High dispersions are expected areawide by Thursday
and likely again Friday. A wetter pattern will kickoff with the
frontal passage this weekend and should continue into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  69  93  71 /   0   0  40  50
SSI  89  71  94  71 /   0   0  20  50
JAX  95  70  96  71 /   0   0  10  30
SGJ  92  71  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  93  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  94  69  93  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$