Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181055
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
655 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A cold front is located from SC, across southeast GA, and to the
central FL panhandle. Weak pre-frontal trough appears to extend
southwest to northeast over northeast FL. Broad mid/upper level
troughing extends across the eastern U.S., with a strong shortwave
trough diving southeast across the Midwest. Locally, scattered
mainly light showers extend across the area and some instability
extends across northeast FL with MUCAPE of about 500-1000 J/kg,
highest over toward the I-75 corridor. Upstream, some scattered
weak convection is noted across the northeast GOMEX.

The cold front will slowly shift southward today and when combined
with increasing lift with shortwave energy will support scattered
to numerous showers and a few storms today across northeast FL.
The environment is supportive of isolated strong storms, with
forecast guidance showing MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk
shear of 50 kt, with the main focus across the srn most zones.
SPC has outline a marginal risk of severe storms in this area
today, with mainly a wind threat threat and lower hail threat.
Most of the activity will be south of the area 5-6 pm today. Skies
will be mostly cloudy through at least early aftn with decreasing
cloudiness developing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the
northwest during the day, but not reach more than about 10-15
mph, with highs today expected in the upper 60s to lower to mid
70s.

Tonight, skies will clear up tonight except for some thin cirrus.
A strong pressure gradient develops with stronger pressure rises
of 2-4 mb/3 hours developing as high pressure tries to build in
quickly behind the cold front. Gusty winds from the northwest
anticipated with winds of 15-25 mph with a few gusts of at least
30 mph. Much colder tonight with lows from the upper 30s to lower
and mid 40s, and wind chills becoming widespread in the lower to
mid 30s inland areas by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure building into the area will bring dry weather over
much of the upcoming week. Northwest flow will allow for cooler
air to tickle in, leading to temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees
below normal on Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will ease on
Tuesday as high pressure continues to build into the area leading
to a shift to light westerly winds by Tuesday night and continuing
through midweek. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to trend
upward to sit at just near normal. A shift in the winds is
expected during the morning hours on Thursday as the high pressure
moves off towards the northeast ahead of a low pressure system
over the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Precipitation chances return as a low pressure system over the
Gulf is expected to move over the Florida peninsula from Thursday
night through Friday. The latest GFS run indicates a more
northerly track as it moves from southwest to northeast. As such,
showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in over north central
Florida and spread to the rest of the local area as the low moves
through. Estimates of 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with
higher locally higher amounts expected over north central Florida.
By the weekend, dry conditions look to become reestablished as the
low moves off towards the northeast and high pressure builds in
over the area. Below normal temperatures during the forecast
period are expected as daytime temperatures mainly in the low to
mid 70s for NE FL and the upper 60s for SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Widespread low clouds (IFR/MVFR) conds with the frontal passage
this morning with most of the convection pushing south of I-10
corridor and will likely only impact GNV/SGJ through the mid
morning hours with VFR conds expected at all TAF sites as NW winds
increase to 15G25 knots by the evening hours and continue through
the nighttime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Winds are westerly about 10-15 kt and seas noted to be mostly
around 2 ft or less. Cold front will slowly push across the area
waters today and will be accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast FL.
Northwest to north winds will rapidly increase tonight with enough
support to trigger a gale warning for area waters, with gale
conditions for at least 4-8 hours. Will probably be a short
duration small craft advisory for Tuesday morning, but winds will
decrease quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds
continue to be light into Wed and early Thu as high pressure ridge
extends across the region. Winds will increase Thu night as the
next low pressure system moves into the eastern GOMEX. Still looks
like the low pres system will scoot just south of the marine area
Fri night, and then into the western Atlantic Sat morning.

Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot.
Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased
northerly winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley
and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor
flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at
Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  37  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  72  41  61  42 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  73  40  63  39 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  73  43  61  41 /  80   0   0   0
GNV  76  40  66  38 /  70   0   0   0
OCF  77  42  66  37 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$


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