Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 182321
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
721 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will build from the northwest through the night, with
a trend toward clear skies. Due to the gradient between the exiting
front and building high, a surge of winds will move south across the
region beginning this evening, and lasting through around sunrise.
The strongest winds will be along the coast.

Temperatures will fall off sharply Tonight, with lows ranging from
the mid 30s over inland SE GA, to the lower 40s over coastal NE FL.
Frost is not expected due to the winds. However, wind chills values
will drop below freezing across most inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of
the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly
mild winds persisting through Wednesday. There is a possibility
for frost formation early Wednesday morning for some areas however
conditions for development are borderline so confidence at this
time is low. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and
rising into the lower 70s Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures
will similarly rise from out of the upper 30s up into the mid 40s
Wednesday night going into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The influence of high pressure will diminish and move off to the
east on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing on Friday as instability associated with a low pressure
system traveling across the Gulf of Mexico and then being
followed by a dry front bringing high pressure conditions over the
forecast area by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop
to be slightly below the seasonal average by the end of the week
but will return to normal levels by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Skies will clear Tonight, so VFR conditions will prevail this
period. A surge of winds will move across the area this evening into
the overnight, with the strongest winds along the coast. These gusty
winds will diminish toward sunrise. Have used variable winds in the
later period of this forecast, as the winds become fairly light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move
across the area today with scattered to numerous showers through
the afternoon and into the evening. In the wake of the cold front,
a rapid increase in northwest to north winds is expected tonight
and will support gale force conditions with a gale warning is now
in effect. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure
to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the
dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance
arrives Thursday night which will increase winds and build seas
again through Friday.

Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot.
Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased
northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  62  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  61  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  40  63  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  61  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  41  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  42  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

&&

$$


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