814
FXUS64 KLCH 302055
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Currently we have near zonal flow aloft while at the surface, an
area of high pressure over northern Louisiana is moving off to
the east. Southerly flow will return tonight and prevail for the
rest of the short term forecast. Low level moisture will slowly
increase which will increase the chances of seeing patchy fog in
a few areas tonight and tomorrow morning. Whatever fog that forms
will burn off after sunrise.

Our next shot of rain comes tomorrow as the first in a series of
weak disturbances moves through. Some isolated to scattered
showers return to the forecast by the afternoon period, mainly
across parts of SETX. PWATs over the day will increase with max
values around the 90th percentile over the western third of the
CWA. Flow aloft will become southwesterly with southerly flow
already prevailing at the surface. Ample moisture will pull into
the area with increasing PWATs going into Thursday.

Showers and storms will ramp up Thursday morning with activity
becoming widespread across the northern half of the CWA. Rainfall
totals over the day will be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range with higher
amounts possible in some areas. Currently SETX and CenLA are in a
slight to marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There is a
moderate risk area right north of the CWA. This will be monitored
over the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A somewhat unsettled pattern looks to be on tap as we begin the long
term period, with a cold front expected to be draped across the Ark-
La-Tex early Friday beneath a weak zonal flow aloft. As the boundary
meanders to our north on Friday a robust shortwave is expected to
move overhead in the flow aloft, resulting in elevated rain chances
throughout the day Friday. Stuck with NBM POPs for Friday which
paints the highest rain chances across interior SE TX and CENLA,
generally north of the HWY 190 corridor, while lesser rain chances
are expected further south further away from the frontal boundary.
Better rain chances across inland areas should keep temps in the
upper 70s to low 80s on Friday, while further south we will warm
into the low to mid 80s.

Moving into the weekend the cold front to our north will continue to
slowly meander south before eventually dissipating across CENLA by
Sunday. At the same time a couple more disturbances look to pass
overhead in the flow aloft. With lesser support at the surface
weekend rain chances look minimal, with just small 15-30% POPs on
tap for Saturday and no precip expected Sun. With less rain and more
sunshine expect temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s
throughout the weekend areawide, while overnight lows will struggle
to cool past the 70 degree mark.

Monday and beyond a dry, humid, and warm weather pattern continues
with onshore flow pumping warm, moist air inland beneath a building
ridge aloft. This will result in highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s,
which is around 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Overnight, lows
will continue to fall into the lower 70s while dewpoints will run in
the upper 60s to lower 70s both during the day and overnight.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail until tonight when we could see
patchy to dense fog. Conditions could temporarily fall into IFR /
LIFR overnight and this morning, however timing is difficult to
pinpoint at this moment. Fog should be quick to dissipate after
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase through
the middle of the week as the surface trough and deep layer upper
level trough approaches the area. Onshore flow expected for the
the period with an SCA possibly needed by Thursday as the pressure
gradient tightens slightly more with winds in the gulf waters
increasing above 20kts briefly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  89  66  81 /   0  10  10  50
LCH  65  85  71  82 /   0  30  10  30
LFT  67  89  71  84 /   0  20   0  20
BPT  68  84  72  83 /   0  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87