Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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013 FXUS64 KLIX 022110 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 410 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Rather difficult forecast as convection has periodically gotten into the CWA before quickly dissipating as it pushed farther east. This makes sense as the mesoanalysis showed the theta e axis was over the Atchafalaya and as storms work across it they began to weaken. Also the best LL convergence and upper lvl divergence was back to our west. The best mid lvl forcing hung around the coast and to our west-southwest. This has allowed some stronger storms to continue to push east along the coast but still as they worked east they quickly weakened. CAMs have been all over the place from not having anything moving in to bringing the weakening squall line through almost the entire area. We are somewhere between with showers and a few storms getting into the area and now as far east as I-55 but we do anticipate these to continue to weaken. However with broad lift still streaming in from the west- southwest flow aloft we could still pop off a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the area. Fog will be a possibility again tonight but if rain is able to quickly develop during the overnight and early morning hours dense fog should not be as much of a problem but areas of moderate fog with patchy dense can not be ruled out. Biggest question in the short term is tomorrow. A lot of the guidance is indicating a decent shot of rain for the western half of the CWA and many want to get things going rather early. There is even some indication that there could be pockets of heavy rain. Overall not too concerned about that threat however, given what occurred over seTX and swLA the environment is set up for locally heavy rain but that still should be west of us. So what is leading to this development which could begin overnight to our west and move into the area during the mid to late morning hours. Honestly this is a very difficult question to answer and it could be something as simple as a subtle s/w. Having a hard time finding it in the WV. The next best source of lift is located in the mid lvl jet streaming from the north-central Gulf wsw across Mexico and coming out of the Pac but that next piece of strong lift would get to the LA coast by 2/3z tonight and that is not it unless convection start WAY earlier than what any guidance is hinting at. It looks like the support would be coming out of the 4 corners and should be moving across the TX/OK panhandles in the next 3-6 hours. Abundant moisture is in place with PWs around 1.5 and approaching 1.8 overnight with most of the area at or abv 1.7 before midday Friday. Other favorable features will be the diffluence aloft with what could be a coupled jet like feature develop over LA west of the MS River. So right now the biggest question is can we get something to develop and does it initiate to our west or over the western portions of the CWA. If there is enough support to spark some sort of MCS many other features are there for locally heavy rain. Locally for our area the antecedent conditions are rather dry and we can likely handle some decent rain. The problem would be if storms train over any area that has very poor drainage or if we get a storm that anchors itself over a place like BR or southwestern Wilkinson county and tries to back build. Storms should come to an end during the afternoon with s/w ridging Friday night. We then move into weak zonal flow through the weekend with little to no concerns for rain but temperatures will be warming. Highs this weekend will likely be in the mid to upper 80s and we could see some heat index readings in the lower 90s but honestly this won`t be that bad compared to what we could be looking at late next week as models want to say hello to the 90s and we aren`t talking about and we aren`t talking about grunge, hip-hop, or Pokemon. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Anomalously warm conditions are the biggest headlines for next week, especially going into mid next week. Zonal flow continues for the southeast CONUS but ridging will start to build in from the Gulf of Mexico. Although a few weak shortwaves will pass through parts of Louisiana, precip chances will remain relatively low. Both temperatures and dew points are expected to climb with high temperatures being in the low to mid 90s and dew points getting into the 70s. Records on Wed are possibly threatened, the NBM has mid 90s in Baton Rouge and New Orleans (record is 92 and 91, respectively). Regardless of smashing records or not, it`ll definitely be a full dose of summer weather. -BL && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Impacts for most terminals are expected over the next 6 to 12 hours but how much is more of a question. Showers and thunderstorms are moving in and trying to push farther east. MCb and BTR will likely see the greatest impacts with MVFR cigs and vsbys expected at times but could even be down to IFR. HDC has the next best chance of seeing impacts while impacts at MSY, NEW, HUM, and ASD should not be as bad. MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible especially if any TSRA moves over those terminals but rain will likely be on the downward trend. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Outside of convection everything is rather quiet in the Gulf. High pressure will dominate through much of the forecast and remained centered off to our east-northeast. This will allow the persistent light to slightly moderate onshore flow to continue. Convection really only looks to be an issue for the next 24 to 36 hours and than that drops off. With any storm locally higher winds and seas can be expected. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 79 63 84 / 30 60 20 30 BTR 70 84 68 88 / 40 60 10 20 ASD 70 83 67 87 / 20 30 10 10 MSY 72 83 72 87 / 20 30 0 10 GPT 72 82 69 84 / 10 20 10 10 PQL 69 85 67 87 / 10 20 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB