413
FXUS64 KLIX 032052
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest
Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the
CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it`s steadily
weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an
embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi,
there`s no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have
intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar
shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary
along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that
convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers
possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating
around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the
southwest and trough to the northwest. There`s some hints on the
500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the
surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This
setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC,
marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few
storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a
complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to
NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development
of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and
adjacent LA parishes. Probably won`t see much, if any, convection
south of I-12.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat
zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered
south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt
convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance
spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in
the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that`s at
or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be
elevated for sensitive groups.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A mix of VFR to IFR conditions are ongoing as large clusters of
showers pass from west to east across the area. As this activity
dissipates later this afternoon, lower decks should generally lift
as well. The period of VFR will likely be short lived as widespread
rainfall today will enhance the potential for areas of light fog
tonight. Dense fog shouldn`t be too common, so mostly have BR in
most TAF forecasts. VFR should return mid morning.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout
the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient
onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region
and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly
winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  85  64  83 /  20  30  10  40
BTR  68  89  69  87 /  20  20   0  40
ASD  68  87  69  86 /  10  20   0  20
MSY  71  87  72  86 /  10  10   0  20
GPT  69  84  69  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  67  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME