Text Products for AFD Issued by LKN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS65 KLKN 180807
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
107 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry today with temperatures trending warmer. Well
above normal temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday,
during which time most areas will warm into the 70s. Wednesday
temperatures cools back into the 60s, with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms over the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. The back side of a broad
trough over the northwestern U.S. is currently pushing cool air
into northern NV. Later today as this trough exits to the east,
the flow over NV becomes more zonal, which will result in a dry
and warmer flow across the CWA. Highs today will be near to
slightly above normal with upper 50s to low 60s across northern
NV, and mid 60s to low 70s across central NV. Weak zonal flow on
Friday will keep the gradual warming trend going across NV. The
CWA will be dry both today and on Friday, with the possible
exception of NE Nye and White Pine counties Friday afternoon and
early evening as weak instability leads to a 10-15% chance of
very light shower activity, with the best chance for a shower
being over Great Basin National Park.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

Saturday a large northern stream upper level closed low will be
located just north of Lake Superior in Ontario, meanwhile a weak
southern stream upper trough will be moving on shore over southern
California. Although subtle, the inter play between these two
features may allow a weak deformation zone to drift into Nevada as
a small shortwave trough rides the polar jet through Idaho into
Wyoming for the weekend. Models still show that this zone could
serve as a focus for an isolated shower or two, with the highest
probability across eastern NV as it gets additional weak lift from
the shortwave upper trough. Model precipitation probabilities
have been trending drier with most recent runs with shower chances
dropping to 10% to 15% with recent runs. This deformation zone
looks to fully wash out by Sunday evening as both upper level
features move east. Monday into Tuesday morning, models have come
in to much better agreement with the upper pattern, with the GFS
and ECMWF now showing a split flow setup with quick moving
northern, and southern stream upper level shortwave ridges
transiting Nevada, with the northern ridge leading the southern by
about ½ a day in time. However as the ridges move east of NV they
look to amplify in response to an upstream trough digging south
out of the gulf of Alaska. This next system will begin to approach
the Pacific NW coast Tuesday morning with precipitation chances
increasing Tuesday evening through Wednesday for Nevada and will
be followed by a stronger system Thursday evening. This first
system at this time doesn’t look to well organized, but models
show a 20% of isolated rain showers Tuesday evening, increasing to
40% by Wednesday morning. After a brief lull Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning the stronger of the pair of systems will
move into NV bringing a 40% to 60% of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with some snow above 8000 ft. Amounts with the first
system look to be on the very light side with up to 0.05” for the
valleys and passes, and up to 0.10” for the mountains. Forecast
snow levels look to be very high with this first system, above
9000 ft, so the precipitation will fall mainly as a light rain. As
for the second system, confidence is two low at this time to
offer exact amounts as the main impacts will occur just outside of
the forecast window. Temperatures and Winds: Spring like
temperatures will continue for the Silver State through next week
as daytime highs range in upper 60s to low 80s. Overnight lows
will follow a similar trend with lows hovering in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Winds will be generally out of the W to NW at speeds
of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH through the weekend. Winds
shift to more of a W to SW direction Monday through Thursday as a
upper trough approaches NV, but will remain at similar speeds of
10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to30 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals over the
next 24 hour period. FEW to SCT mid and upper-level clouds are
expected but dry conditions will persist through Thursday.
North to northwest winds early Thursday morning will transition to
the west and southwest across northern Nevada with sustained
speeds of 10 knots or less Thursday afternoon. Slightly higher
west winds will develop across central Nevada at KTPH and KELY but
gusts should stay below 20 knots or so.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks and rivers across northern and
central Nevada have elevated flows. Dry conditions are expected
the remainder of the week, however temperatures will be trending
warmer which will again help to accelerate the melting of the
remaining mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, with the flow
expected to slowly rise, but not reach flood stage today.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action stage
and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise today, possibly reaching minor flood
stage later today.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain around
8.0 feet (the low end of minor flood stage) over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/98/93