772
FXUS64 KMAF 010537
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the rest of today and into tonight, there is little change to
the forecast. Current observations show the dryline has now
mixed(moved) east of Midland/Odessa where dewpoints to the west are
in the 30s and 40s and to the east are in the 60s. Isolated storms,
some becoming severe, look to develop this afternoon and move to the
east into tonight. Damaging winds and large hail remain the main
threats with this evening`s activity.

The dryline migrates back to the west tonight with better moisture
return across eastern zones and ends up settling against the higher
terrain near Carlsbad in New Mexico southward towards the Davis
Mountain Foothills. Forecast soundings continue to show ample
instability on the order of 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE, steep lapse rates
(7-8C/km+), and some shear(20-30kts). The main threats with any
severe storms that afternoon/evening will be damaging winds and
large hail. A tornado or two will be possible as outflow from
neighboring cells could augment the low level environment. Hi-
resolution guidance continues to be in agreement on timing of CI
around 20-21z (3-4pm) Wednesday afternoon. Activity will move to the
east and out of the area around or just after 1-2z(8-9pm).

With the dryline moving back to the west tonight, lows end up in
the upper 50s to 60s for most as moisture and low clouds prevent
efficient cooling. Highs on Wednesday end up in the low to mid 90s
to the west of the dryline and in the upper 80s to the east.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Thursday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under
southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front will be moving
through the Texas Panhandle, and the dryline is forecast to extend
from north central Eddy County southeast to Fort Stockton, southwest
through the Big Bend.  Latest models stall the front just outside
the CWA which, given the timing, seems entirely reasonable w/diurnal
heating taken into account.  Instead, increasing westerlies will mix
the dryline east of the area by late afternoon, and downslope
warming will keep afternoon highs AOA Wednesday`s--around 5-7F above
normal.  Thursday night, the front backdoors the northeast, helping
to retreat the dryline back west.

Friday through Sunday, a cool spell sets in under continued
southwest flow aloft, with highs each day ranging from near normal
to 2-3F above.  By 12Z Saturday, full moisture recovery is forecast,
w/the dryline backed up to the western CWA border.  A shortwave is
forecast to arrive Saturday afternoon, initiating convection
along/east of the dryline and offering perhaps the bast chances of
precipitation this forecast.  Long-range models depict mid-lvl lapse
rates and deep-layer shear sufficient to pose a severe weather
threat, but this will all change between now and then.  A secondary
cold front backdoors the northeast Saturday night, maintaining
convective chances eastern zones through Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday remain wildcards, as long-range models are in
quite the disagreement handling the next upper trough.  By 00Z
Tuesday, the GFS ejects it from the PacNW into Canada, and is much
cooler, whereas the ECMWF/CMC aim for the Central Plains, and are
considerably warmer.  DESI cluster analysis suggests the GFS is the
outlier, and prefers the warmer ECMWF solution.  That said,
temperatures Monday/Tuesday should be ~ 7-9F above normal, and grids
after Sunday afternoon should remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Brisk south-southeasterly flow should gradually ease throughout
the overnight hours, remaining out of the south through he
afternoon. This flow will likely bring in low clouds again to MAF
and possibly INK and HOB as well (though these terminals only have
a 10-20% chance of MVFR CIGs). The clouds at MAF should stay MVFR
but there`s a 30% chance CIGs are as low as IFR. These clouds
clear out shortly after sunrise and another round of storms are
expected in the afternoon. Timing/coverage is too uncertain to
mention in the TAFs yet but gusty/erratic winds are a sure bet
across the Permian Basin.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Critical relative humidity is forecast every day this forecast to
the west of the dryline.  The main factor dictating critical fire
weather conditions will be 20-ft winds.

Wednesday, critical RH is forecast to the west of a KHOB-KINK-KE38-
Rio Grande Village line. However, the only place increased 20-ft
winds will be coincident with this critical RH will be the
Guadalupes/Sacramento Foothills and adjacent plains. thus, we`ll
upgrade the watch to a warning.

Thursday, critical 20-ft winds look to be a little more widespread
as westerlies increase, mixing the dryline farther east, as well as
single-digit RH.  Attm, the stronger 20-ft winds look to buzz the
higher elevations only, so delineating critical fire weather areas
is a little trickier, and we`ll leave this to later shifts to decide.

A cold front Thursday will offer a respite from critical fire
weather through the weekend, as cooler temperatures/higher RH are
expected.  Monday/Tuesday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico could
be back in the fryin` pan as highs soar back to above-normal and
critical RH returns, along with increased 20-ft winds.  However,
much of this will depend on how much rainfall, and where, betides
over the weekend. Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  64  92  60 /  40  30   0  10
Carlsbad                 94  58  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   88  66  96  65 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  61  93  60 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  58  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  56  88  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    87  51  84  49 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  64  92  59 /  30  20   0   0
Odessa                   90  64  92  60 /  30  20   0   0
Wink                     95  61  94  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 11
     PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16