321
ACUS11 KWNS 050003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050003
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050003Z - 050100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts and small hail are possible through
the evening hours in the ArkLaTex region.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have been observed during
the last few hours across portions of the ArkLaTex region. Small
hail and gusty winds have occurred with multiple cores in
southeastern AR, as well as a rogue one in southeastern OK. This
convection is associated with a modest mid-level speed max moving
through the region -- as evidenced in short-term forecast guidance
-- in conjunction with diurnal heating.

Regional reconnaissance indicates that these storms are moving
through an environment supportive of continued multi-cell/supercell
structures, characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500+ J/kg and
0-6-km shear up to around 30 kts. The more mature cells appear to be
moving generally to the ESE at around 20 kts, yielding some
low-level storm-relative helicity in a generally straight shear
profile. Rich boundary-layer moisture in conjunction with adequate
cloud-layer shear should support a continued threat of small hail
and gusty winds with the stronger updrafts. However, as the
mid-level speed max propagates to the northeast, updrafts will
likely find the lack of bulk shear disturbing, and convection and
associated hazards are expected to gradually wane in the next few
hours.

..Flournoy/Guyer.. 05/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33099390 33559496 34129511 34559474 34859385 34879274
            34449132 33829044 32879040 32689161 32889285 33099390