Text Products for AFD Issued by MFL

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 240615
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
215 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

South Florida remains entrenched in a fairly zonal upper geopotential height
regime, with polar front jet stream and associated mid-latitude
disturbances displaced well north of the region. As a result,
little to no change in the weather regime is expected for today.
Expect mild and dry conditions to continue, with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies prevailing through the day. Maximum
temperatures will range from the upper 70s (east coast) into the
mid 80s (interior and west coast), with overnight lows ranging
from the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Thursday will remain largely unchanged in terms of the expected
weather regime, with the main story being a tightened pressure
gradient near the surface. This will result in an uptick in wind
speeds, particularly along the east coasts where gusts up to 20-25
mph will be possible. Otherwise, dry and temperate conditions
prevail. Little to no fluctuation in temperatures, with afternoon
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows
ranging from the 60s to 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper-level ridging and a prevailing surface high will dominate the
regional weather pattern, maintaining mostly dry and seasonable
conditions throughout the period. A tightened pressure gradient
near the surface will promote breezy easterly winds, particularly
along the immediate Atlantic coast where wind gusts may range from
25-30 mph at times. Isolated showers may traverse the local
Atlantic waters and the East Coast over the weekend due to low-
level moisture advection, with the Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) limited to around 15-20%. Easterly winds will contribute to
warmer temperatures, particularly in the southwest, where
afternoon highs are anticipated to reach the mid to upper 80s.
Along the East Coast, temperatures will be moderated by the
easterly breeze, with expected highs in the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light east-
northeast winds this morning will trend easterly by the afternoon
with speeds 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20 kts. KAPF will
likely have a wind shift to westerly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Hazardous marine conditions have largely tapered off compared to prior days,
though choppy seas may still be present - particularly over the
Atlantic waters adjacent to Palm Beach County. Mostly benign
conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday, with moderate to
fresh easterly breezes expected. Seas in the Atlantic will
subside to 2-4 ft for the middle to end of the week, while seas in
the Gulf will be 2 ft or less. Hazardous conditions will return
late Friday and into the weekend as easterly flow strengthens.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A high risk for rip currents will continue across all Atlantic
beaches today and potential linger through the week and into the
upcoming weekend owing to the presence of onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Minimum relative humidity values below 35 percent are possible
today over portions of Interior SW Florida, in addition to the
Significant Fire Potential Forecast being in the orange category.
However winds should remain well below Red Flag Criteria through
the day as easterly flow weakens relative to previous days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  64  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  69  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  69  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   83  68  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  80  66  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  67  82  69 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           86  67  87  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
