Text Products for AFD Issued by MHX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 240822
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
422 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today
and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into
the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides
offshore this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...Interesting forecast next 18 hours as
a cold front associated with a strong mid level shortwave moving
through the northeast approaches eastern NC today and crosses
the area tonight. Moisture will be quite limited with this
system, especially initially and thus precipitation coverage and
amounts will be limited. There is also very limited instability
with only around 250 J/kg of CAPE so not expecting any thunder
with the showers. Nonetheless, there are a couple of factors
that lead me to think there could more shower activity than the
consensus of the models which are dry. The first is that the
best forcing will be occurring during peak heating. Another is
that for most the day dewpoints will be in the 40s, but increase
into the mid 50s when low level convergence will be maximized.
Speaking of convergence, the models are forecasting a well
defined pre-frontal trough/windshift well ahead of the front
which will be moving the eastern NC during the afternoon and
early evening and should be the focus for scattered shower
activity. The wetter models are keying in on the area from the
southern Outer Banks to the southeast NC coast early this
evening as the time/location where the showers will be most
numerous. Decided to increase PoPs slightly to 30%. Gusty SW
winds are expected through early afternoon then the gradient
will decrease the trough moves through the area. Continued
southerly flow will result in highs in the low to mid 70s with
some upper 70s possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...The aforementioned trough/windshift
along with the bulk of the showers are forecast to be moving
offshore in the early evening with the main cold front forecast
to cross the region 6-12Z Thu. Think most of the shower activity
should be winding down by midnight and not expecting much if any
additional showers with the passage of the cold front late
tonight. Winds will shift to the north behind the front with
temps falling into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating.

With the cold front offshore for the start of the long term,
gusty conditions will prevail through the afternoon,
particularly for OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. Some
guidance is hinting at showers in the afternoon/evening Thursday
along the sea breeze. Chose to discount this, as moisture is
very shallow. Current expectation is for cumulus to develop
along the sea breeze, but tops should remain low enough to
prevent precipitation. High pressure lingers to our north
Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard through the
end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Remainder
of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving
through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this
stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be
pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If
the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the
weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will
see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this
update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the
most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the
weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become
southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system
will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves
will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the
cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with
higher precip chances expected in AKQ`s CWA and further north.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term (mid-upper 80s
inland), aided by SW flow with the high to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...A cold front is forecast to cross the
TAF sites late tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period with SW winds today. Scattered showers are expected
this afternoon into early evening cold produce a brief period of
MVFR conditions mainly visibility. Forecast ceilings will be
VFR through tonight with diminishing winds expected late today.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday with high pressure dominating the long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...The main changes to the marine forecast
were to extend out in time the SCA`s for the coastal waters and
the Pamlico Sound to account for moderate to strong pre and post
frontal flow today into Thu.

The strongest winds through tonight will occur this morning into
this afternoon ahead of a pre frontal trough wind shift. Ahead
of this feature SW winds of 15-25 kt will occur and result in
seas of 4-7 ft. As the trough moves through, winds will briefly
shift to the N but are forecast to be light /10 kt or less/ late
this afternoon through early this evening. Then a cold front is
forecast to sweep through the waters 6-12Z Thu. Winds will
briefly become SW ahead of the front tonight then shift to the N
10-15 kt behind it late tonight. Stronger northerly flow is
forecast to develop on Thu. Seas 4-7 ft (up to 8 ft over the
outer central waters) today will briefly subside to 3-5 ft
tonight.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore of the
Crystal Coast and SOBX for the start of the long term. Behind
the cold front, we will see a surge of northerly winds Thursday
afternoon/evening. Pamlico Sound has a Small Craft Advisory out
until 6Z Friday due to this surge. Duration of the higher winds
will be shorter for northern sounds.Alligator River, preventing
the issuance of a SCA at this time. Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
should remain below SCA critera. We will also see waves picking
up from the deepening low in the North Atlantic. This will
allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue for coastal
waters until 6Z Friday. The exception is waters off of Hatteras
Island and Ocracoke, where high waves at or above 6 ft will
linger a bit longer, until 0Z Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
