544
FXUS62 KMHX 291135
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
735 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 730 AM Monday...

Given how active this time of year could be, the weather is
expected to be remarkably quiet today thanks to mid/upper level
ridging overhead. At the surface, high pressure has slid further
south which will keep more of a southwesterly low-level flow
going. This combined with warming low-level thicknesses will
support above to well above normal highs away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Mid/upper level ridging remains overhead tonight, with a
continued southwesterly flow helping support mild, above normal,
overnight temperatures. One potential fly in the ointment for
tonight is the potential development of fog/stratus. The
orientation of the high offshore will support a moistening
southwesterly flow, with dewpoints forecast to rise into the low
60s through the night. Forecast soundings suggest the depth of
low-level moistening may be sufficiently deep to support some
low stratus, or fog, development. At minimum, it could be a
scenario where at least patchy fog is able to develop that has
more depth to it than the patchy ground fog of late.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures persist on Tuesday with highs in the
low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. A
mid-level trough will amplify as it moves east across the
SECONUS. Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not
making its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance
expected to pass during Wednesday`s peak heating, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less
likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with
PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with
upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 730 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub VFR conditions possible (20-40% chance) late tonight

FORECAST DETAILS

A background southwesterly flow will continue over the next 24
hrs, but will be briefly interrupted by a southerly wind with
the passage of the seabreeze. The TAFs reflect the expected
timing of the seabreeze and associated wind shift. SHRA are not
anticipated along the seabreeze today. Later this evening and
into tonight, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will
lead to increasing low-level moisture advection. Guidance
continue to hint at the potential for BR/FG or stratus
development associated with the increase in moisture. However,
there isn`t yet a strong signal in the guidance, so I`ve opted
to keep sub-VFR conditions out of the TAFs for now. We`ll
continue to re-evaluate this potential in later forecasts.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An
approaching disturbance will bring some chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Relatively good boating conditions are expected through
tonight. However, there are a couple of caveats worth
mentioning. The diurnal increase in southwesterly winds
associated with the developing thermal gradient may support a
few gusts to 25kt for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.
The duration and magnitude forecast appears too marginal for any
marine headlines, and I`ll continue to hold off on this for
now. For the coastal waters, seas are forecast to hold in the
2-4 ft range through this evening. By tonight, long period swell
arriving from the Northern Atlantic may lead to seas building
to 3-5 ft, especially north of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC