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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
434 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today/tonight...Considerable altocumulus clouds will overspread
much of the area this morning from the NW assocd with a mid level
shortwave trough traversing the area. There will be partial
clearing during the day but some mid and high clouds will persist.
Low levels remain too dry for any measurable rain. The Atlc ridge
axis will drop south across the area today and become nearly
stationary across south FL tonight. Light south winds in vicinity
of the ridge axis will increase out of the SE behind the sea
breeze by early afternoon along the coast, spreading inland during
the mid to late afternoon. Wind speeds will remain below 15 mph
but gusts near 20 mph will be possible esp alg the coast. Despite
the clouds, max temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90 over the
interior and low to mid 80s coast. Only LEE has a chance to equal
its record of 90F from 1990 but given the cloudy start there, this
is probably a stretch. After sunset when the sea breeze
circulation diminishes, winds will become south to southwest and
decrease around 5 mph. Min temps in the low to mid 60s.

Friday-Sunday...Mid-level ridging will gradually flatten into the
weekend, with flow aloft becoming quasi-zonal late Saturday into
Sunday. At the surface, an area of high pressure located across the
western Atlantic will slowly weaken, with the ridge axis remaining
draped across southern Florida. As a result, dry conditions are
forecast to persist through the remainder of this week and into the
weekend, with PoPs remaining below 10 percent. However, some
isolated showers may be possible Sunday afternoon due to increasing
moisture locally out ahead of the next frontal passage, though this
will be dependent on just how far inland the sea breeze pushes.
Confidence in this remains low at this time, so left out mention of
it in the forecast for now. Will continue to monitor and reevaluate
with each subsequent forecast package.

Winds are forecast to remain out of the west-southwest at 5 to 10
mph, with winds backing to out of the south-southeast Friday and
Saturday afternoons as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. While the sea breeze will develop on Sunday, the extent to
which it will push inland is uncertain as winds aloft becoming
increasingly stronger out of the west, which could keep the sea
breeze pinned along the coast. Development of the sea breeze will be
fueled by the temperature gradient between the Florida peninsula and
the local Atlantic waters, with afternoon highs climbing into the
upper 80s to mid 90s across east central Florida. For reference,
temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 60s
each night.

Monday-Wednesday...A weak cold front will approach the Florida
peninsula early Monday, leading to increasing rain chances (PoPs 30-
50 percent). Isolated storms cannot fully be ruled out with the
front, though confidence is not overly high at this time. The front
is forecast to move southward and become diffuse through the day on
Monday, with an area of high pressure building across the
southeastern US late Monday night through Wednesday. Mostly dry
conditions are then forecast into midweek as a result, though
lingering moisture from the diffuse front and onshore flow could
combine Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons to cause the development of
some isolated showers across the southern portions of the forecast
area (especially across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties).
Confidence in this remains low though, and will be dependent on this
moisture moving slightly northward, and the models still remain in
slight disagreement at this time on whether that will occur.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast on Monday, though skies are
forecast to become mostly clear Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions
dry out. The weak front will provide little relief from the heat,
with temperatures on Monday remaining in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Slightly cooler on Tuesday north of the Cape and Orlando metro, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with areas southward still
climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. By Wednesday, temperatures
will warm right back up into the mid 80s to low 80s across east
central Florida. Overnight lows remaining in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conds forecast through the TAF period. A period of BKN-OVC150
will push thru this morning with some stratocu FEW-SCT030-040
pushing onshore the southern terminals. Proximity of the Atlc
ridge axis will produce a light southerly flow to start, turning
onshore (SE) 10-12 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z with a few
higher gusts possible. These seabreeze winds will reach interior
terminals (MCO/SFB) aft 20Z. Aft 00Z, winds will veer south to
southwest and decrease 5 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today/tonight...Atlc ridge axis will slip southward across the
waters today and reach south FL overnight. This will produce a
light S to SW flow across northern waters and maintain a SE flow
across the south. Pressure gradient will support 5-10 knots. A
sea breeze of 10-14 knots will develop near the coast by aftn,
shifting winds out of the SE north of the Cape and enhancing the
SE winds south of the Cape. Then after sunset, winds will become
uniformly S/SW around 10 knots as the sea breeze circulation
diminishes. Seas 2-3 feet mainly in an east swell. The sea breeze
will produce a small wind chop in the intracoastal.

Friday-Monday...An area of high pressure will remain in place across
the western Atlantic through the weekend, gradually weakening as a
weak cold front approaches the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic
waters on Monday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through at
least Sunday, with increasing rain chances forecast Sunday night
into Monday. Isolated thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out.

Southerly winds will persist across the local waters through the
weekend, with the development of the east coast sea breeze making
winds slightly southeastward each afternoon across the waters
immediately adjacent to the coast. By Monday, winds will become more
southwesterly across the local waters. Wind speeds are forecast to
remain generally between 5 to 15 knots, with some areas across the
offshore waters reaching 15 to 20 knots Saturday and Sunday. Seas
generally 2 to 4 feet through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of high pressure located across the western Atlantic will
continue to provide dry conditions across east central Florida
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Minimum RH
values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior
west of I-95, with a few localized areas across the interior falling
to 30 to 35 percent. Along the coast, minimum RH values will remain
above critical values in the 40 to 55 percent range. Light
southeasterly winds will become west-southwest tomorrow as the ridge
axis shifts southward across the peninsula. The development of the
east coast sea breeze and movement inland will cause winds to back
to out of the east-southeast each afternoon. Wind speeds are
forecast to remain below 15 mph through the remainder of the week.
Afternoon smoke dispersion will be fair to generally good today,
improving to generally good to very good on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  64  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  85  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  88  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  90  67  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM...Tollefsen
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
