Text Products for AFD Issued by MOB

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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FXUS64 KMOB 181804
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR ceilings are still being observed at several sites around the
region as of 18Z. We do expect a gradual rise to VFR over most of
the area through the afternoon, though a few locations near the
immediate coast may remain MVFR. Another round of IFR to LIFR
ceilings will impact the forecast area again late tonight into
early Friday morning with patchy fog potentially reducing the
visibility to IFR thresholds or lower at times between 06-14Z.
/21

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Low ceilings and patchy fog are the main forecast concern in the
near term. Some of the high resolution guidance is keying in on the
fog potential across inland areas through the pre-dawn hours this
morning and area-wide tonight into Friday morning. We will continue
to monitor fog trends this morning, but at this point the fog is not
widespread on satellite imagery.

The local area remains on the western periphery of a surface high
draped over parts of the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic this
morning. Winds predominantly remain southerly in this pattern today,
allowing for moisture to continue to trickle into the region. A
subtle shortwave slides north of the area later today and will
likely kick off some showers and storms. Some of the CAMS show some
of this activity sliding across our northernmost counties this
afternoon (north of the Hwy 84 corridor), but confidence is too low
to include any appreciable POPs for that area (currently less than
15% POPs late this afternoon). Can`t rule out something isolated,
but the bulk of the activity should remain north of our CWA today
and Friday.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through Friday and
drops to LOW this weekend. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A zonal upper flow pattern will continue through the weekend.
Meanwhile, at the sfc, a weak front will stall across portions of
the southeast. A southerly low level flow will continue to pump
deep layer moisture into the region. The increased moisture along
with disturbances in the zonal flow and the stalled boundary will
lead to unsettled conditions through the weekend with rain chances
increasing on Saturday. The highest rain chances are on Sunday as
a stronger shortwave is forecast to move across. This will move
the front out of the area with a northwesterly flow developing on
Monday into Tuesday with drier air moving into the region. Temps
remain warm through the weekend before cooling down temporarily
early next week. /13



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  85  65  84  63  74  51  75 /  10   0   0  20  20  70  10   0
Pensacola   67  82  66  81  66  76  56  75 /  10   0   0  10  10  60  20   0
Destin      67  80  67  80  67  76  57  75 /   0   0   0  10   0  60  30   0
Evergreen   62  89  62  86  60  73  48  75 /  10   0   0  30  20  70  10   0
Waynesboro  65  88  63  83  56  65  47  73 /  10   0   0  40  40  80   0   0
Camden      63  86  63  82  56  65  47  71 /  10  10   0  40  40  70  10   0
Crestview   62  88  61  86  61  79  51  77 /  10   0   0  20  10  60  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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