Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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345 AWUS01 KWNH 090355 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090830- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0246 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1154 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...central AR into portions of lower to middle MS Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 090353Z - 090830Z SUMMARY...An advancing line of thunderstorms combined with development ahead of the line will likely support areas of training and potential for localized 2-3 inch totals from central AR into portions of the lower/middle MS Valley. DISCUSSION...At 0330Z, a pre-frontal, broken line of thunderstorms extended from the southern IL/MO border into north-central AR, located within the warm sector of a frontal cyclone to the north. Cells of a more discrete nature were noted out ahead of the broken line, extending from the MO Bootheel to east-central AR. SPC mesoanalysis data from 03Z showed impressive MLCAPE values of 2500 to 4000+ J/kg along with PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches from the Arklatex into the MS Valley, with diffluent flow aloft aiding ascent within southwesterly flow aloft. The broken line of convection is expected to continue advancing toward the east-southeast through 08Z while possibly picking up speed across portions of the MS/OH River confluence as the cold front advances downstream over the next few hours. The northern portion of the line may push out ahead more quickly, relative to the southern portion over central AR, allowing for alignment with mean steering flow from the SW to WSW. Cell mergers due to discrete cellular activity ahead of the main line may also support increased rainfall rates with 1-2 in/hr likely at times. While the overall movement of convection should limit rainfall totals over most areas, localized 2-3 inch totals through 07Z may result in localized flash flooding across the region. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37308960 36728906 35958839 35418851 34668952 34309142 34419250 34849306 35689283 36719113