Text Products for AFD Issued by MPX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 101811
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
111 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected over the
  next week, outside of a cooler day in the 50s on Thursday.

- Chance of showers and maybe some isolated thunderstorms late
  Wednesday into Thursday and a chance for some more widespread
  rain early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Today and Thursday...Overall clear skies tonight outside of
some clouds over parts of west central Minnesota. Temperatures
have not fallen much overnight though thanks to warm ground from
warm sunny days and a lack of snow. Dew points are high enough
though that an area of fog, locally dense, has developed from St
Cloud to the east into Barron County, WI. This fog will persist
until sunrise when temperatures start to warm again. Another
sunny day today with warm air aloft at 850 mb will give us our
first chance of breaking the 70 mark since March 3. Despite the
warming temperatures surface dew points are not expected to rise
much with a lack of a good source of moisture advection. So
afternoon RH values could fall into elevated fire weather
territory. Thankfully winds should remain below fire weather
criteria and MN DNR maps of fire danger have improved after the
recent rainfall. Speaking of rain chances, they will increase
later today as a shortwave passes through. Forecast soundings
don`t look particularly impressive with little instability or
shear. There could still be enough instability though for some
isolated thunderstorms. Also still seeing inverted V type
soundings, but winds aloft are not high enough for much concern.
The chances this evening and tonight will be more isolated in
nature. It won`t be until Thursday that a more scattered
coverage is possible and by this time the forcing will be mostly
over western Wisconsin. This delay in the better chances is
tied to surface moisture, as there is more moisture to work
with on Thursday. With more moisture comes more clouds and
cooler temperatures, thus Thursday is also the coolest day in
this forecast. Still expecting temperatures of near to slightly
above normal though.

Friday through Tuesday...On Friday higher surface pressure and
therefore the sun returns. This will start the warm up again
with highs around 60. Could be on the windy side though thanks
to favorable mixing. It doesn`t happen often, but our warmest
days this week will be the weekend. Temperatures are fairly
consistently in the 70s through much of the NBM percentiles and
global ensembles. Still not seeing much of a source for
moisture and like Friday favorable mixing could keep us windy.
So fire weather will possibly be a concern, especially as by
this weekend it will be farther removed from our recent rain and
green up has not occurred yet. Cooler, but still above normal
temperatures to start the next week as our next system starts to
move in. Still quite a bit of spread on timing and some spread
as well on the track of this low, but it could be another good
spring soaker. If we are going to keep trying to improve on our
abnormal dryness and drought we will still need a few more of
these systems to make up for past years` dryness.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR this afternoon through tonight, then becoming low
VFR/MVFR tomorrow morning. FEW to SCT VFR cigs will prevail for much
of the period with winds remaining consistent out of west this
afternoon. There is a slim chance of isolated sprinkles that could
develop this afternoon however confidence is too low to make mention
within any TEMPOs or prevailing groups. By tonight, a shortwave
will track across western MN which will reduce cigs to low
VFR/MVFR heights into tomorrow morning. -SHRA chances exist for
RWF and MKT early tomorrow morning but coverage will be more
prevalent after 18z tomorrow across all sites. Winds increase
as the wave passes with NW`ly winds gusting between 20-30kts
after 12z.

KMSP...Only a slight chance of sprinkles again this afternoon but
chances are very low. Did add a PROB30 grouping for -SHRA to develop
after 18z tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Dunleavy
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
