Text Products for AFD Issued by MPX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 090809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
309 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will rebound into the 50s and 60s, with 70s likely this
  weekend.

- Chance for showers Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night with
  a better chance on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

With the nearly filled low pressure system shifted mostly off to our
northeast, the last of the lingering showers remain over the Twin
Cities metro and the MN/WI border early this morning. These showers
will continue to slowly push northeast, likely weakening, before
also leaving our forecast area this morning. Skies have begun to
partially clear in western MN in the wake of this system. (Though,
some areas of fog are expected over central MN this morning with the
residual moisture.) This general clearing will progress from west to
east throughout today, giving us some much needed sun. (The day
after the solar eclipse, of course.) Temperatures should be pleasant
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Did add some 15-30% PoPs
for this afternoon (mainly in eastern MN and western WI) for the
slight chance of pop-up showers/thundershowers underneath the
cyclonic upper-level flow. Forecast soundings also support this
possibility with non-zero surface based CAPE and minimal capping. A
chilled but pleasant Tuesday night will follow with clear skies and
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will climb into the mid to
upper 60s Wednesday as a lobe of 850 hPa thermal ridging moves
overhead.

Another chance for showers and thunderstorms exists across MN
Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the west.
However, rain chances increase Wednesday night through Thursday as
forecast models show said shortwave interacting with a synoptic
cyclone moving northeast thru the Midwest. This should cause
additional rain to form on the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone
and spread over our WI counties, if not most of eastern MN also,
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This wave interaction will
also work to deepen the cyclone, increasing the pressure gradient
across our region and making northwesterly winds quite breezy
Thursday into Thursday night. Perhaps not as breezy as the NBM
originally suggested but after looking at model fields and top of
the channel winds in forecast soundings, still have gusts reaching
or exceeding 30 knots across most of our western and southern MN
counties.

The cyclone will move off to the northeast by Friday leaving clear
skies and mild temperatures (highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s).
However, a warm-up looks likely for the weekend. An upper-level
ridge from the western CONUS, though while flattening, will become
more centered over the central CONUS as strong 850 hPa thermal
ridging advances northeast into the Northern Plains. This should set
us up for a very pleasant weekend, albeit with perhaps some breezier
winds. Ensembles favor a large portion of our CWA seeing highs of at
least 70, particularly our MN counties, Saturday through Monday. A
good trade off for the breezier winds. Additionally, long-range
guidance has slowed down the arrival of any significant shortwaves
until the early half of next week, increasing the likelihood of a
drier weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Light rain will continue to move across the region overnight.
Visibility could briefly drop down to MVFR with the passing
rain, but then lingering fog and drizzle overnight could persist
into the morning. Clouds will be MVFR/IFR as well, with the
lowest clouds at KAXN. Winds will be out of the west on Tuesday,
with afternoon gusts near 20 kts. Gusts will decrease toward
sunset.

KMSP...Light rain showers/drizzle will end this evening. Clouds
should lower as the rain moves through. Winds will be out of
the west, with gusts near 20s possible during the day. This will
lift the cloud deck as drier air moves in.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JRB
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
