Text Products for AFD Issued by OHX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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FXUS64 KOHX 141747
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very warm day across Middle Tennessee with current temperatures
in the mid 70s to low 80s thanks to very gusty southwest winds up
to nearly 40 mph at times. With ample sunshine this afternoon,
highs should easily reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints
have mixed out into the upper 30s to low 40s across our northwest
half, which is leading to marginal fire danger conditions with the
combination of low RH and gusty winds. However, our recent
rainfall should help mitigate this threat. Radar is also showing
some echoes across our southwest counties in association with
some high level moisture, but none of this is anticipated to
reach the ground.

Continued warm and dry weather is anticipated into tomorrow thanks
to a building upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico northward to the
Ohio Valley, along with a persistant southwest to westerly
30-35kt LLJ. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s to
low 60s, with highs tomorrow once again in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to
develop across Kentucky on Monday afternoon along a southward
sagging cold front, but all of this activity is expected to stay
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Continued warm and dry conditions are expected through Tuesday
before an intense upper low and associated 90-100kt H5 jet moves
out of the Plains into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop to our west on Tuesday
into Tuesday night, but weaken as they enter Middle Tennessee
early Wednesday morning as they outrun the more favorable
instability to our west and the main upper jet dynamics to our
north. In the wake of the morning activity, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms appear likely to develop along a weak
cold front moving across the midstate Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Uncertainty continues on how strong or
widespread this activity may get as the upper level low weakens
while moving even further northward away from us, taking the main
upper forcing with it. Nevertheless, forecast soundings continue
to show quite favorable parameters for some strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the front, especially across our northwest
half, so we will have to keep a close eye on this potential.

Cold front will sag south of the midstate on Thursday with
dry and slighter cooler conditions anticipated. Guidance has
shifted to a slower, warmer and much wetter pattern for the end
of the forecast period, as the aforementioned front shifts back
northward Thursday night into Friday, then oozes back southward
over the weekend while several shortwave troughs pass overhead.
This overrunning-type setup as shown on 12Z guidance would bring
us several waves of hard-to-time rain and thunderstorms from
Friday through Sunday. For now have kept pops on the low side and
temps near the NBM due to this warmer and wetter trend, but
further adjustments to the long range forecast are likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions expected this TAF cycle. Winds will get gusty again
today with southwest gusts of 25-30 kts starting around 15Z at
all terminals. LLWS still at BNA/MQY/CKV for the next couple of
hours before surface winds can pick up later this morning. Winds
will relax after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  60  84  63 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    82  61  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     79  56  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       84  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     80  57  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      78  57  78  58 /   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   82  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   84  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        83  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Unger
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
