Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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102 FXUS66 KOTX 120432 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 932 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in the lower 90s. Breezy winds will occur across portions of central and eastern Washington Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however temperatures will be slightly cooler with increasing clouds, and a small chance of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, northeast Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday Night: A flat upper ridge will remain over the region tonight for more dry, quiet weather. For aurora viewing, flat cumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating while high clouds continue to move over the region. Overall slightly more cloud cover tonight compared to last night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected. On Sunday the ridge begins to flatten and move east but mild southwest flow in advance of an approaching mid level wave will result in another warm day with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This wave then tracks into the region from west to east overnight Sunday into Monday morning followed by a secondary wave out of the northwest Monday afternoon and evening. While neither of these waves are terribly impressive, lapse rates will steepen by Monday afternoon for a chance of showers mainly over the mountains, NE Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Models show marginal instability for thunderstorms, and with SPC not carrying anything in their general outlook the forecast leans this direction. JW Tuesday through Saturday: Models remain split in the overall synoptic pattern for the extended forecast, with a range of outcomes possible. We`re rolling with the NBM right now, with a slight majority suggesting warm and mostly dry conditions anticipated (slight chance POPs for northern WA mountains and the ID panhandle). As confidence in this forecast is low, those with plans Wednesday and beyond should monitor the forecast more closely over the coming 24-48hrs until a stronger consensus is achieved. /KD && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: High pressure begins to weaken Sunday afternoon which may allow for a few pop up showers to develop over the mountains near the Canadian border. This will also increase winds compared to Saturday with gusts up to 25 mph across the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. A stronger push of westerly winds arrive through the Cascade gaps Sunday evening impacting Wenatchee after 00z. Otherwise, VFR skies are expected across E WA and N ID. /sb FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions. Main uncertainty comes with the timing of the Cascade gap winds coming down the Wenatchee River Valley and into Wenatchee Airport. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 52 81 51 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 52 78 51 71 47 71 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 Pullman 51 76 51 69 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Lewiston 56 84 54 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 48 82 48 75 45 77 / 0 0 10 20 10 0 Sandpoint 49 77 50 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 30 30 20 Kellogg 54 75 53 68 49 68 / 0 0 0 20 20 10 Moses Lake 53 87 53 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 58 85 56 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 52 88 53 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$