Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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646 FXUS63 KPAH 020447 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers or storms are possible this afternoon with above normal temperatures. Better rain/thunder chances are forecast Thursday night into Friday. - Things then get fairly humid and unsettled. Pop up showers/thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. - Monday-Wednesday next week looks to have a broader pattern mix of increased shear and instability that make give rise to more organized severe weather potential. Guidance solutions are too far apart right now to start zeroing in on anything in particular however. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Temperatures are stretching into the mid to upper 80s today across the region with dewpoints in the mid 60s. A few cu are bubbling up along the Ohio River and into SEMO. There is just a bit of residual large scale lift evident ahead of a small shortwave moving in from Missouri. By this afternoon isolated short-lived showers and storms may very well start to pop up. Weak shear and very marginal instability should prevent any severe concerns. Tomorrow a trough currently pushing off the Rocky mountains will make its way towards the area. Jet-level forcing is weak but there is a strong push of lower level warm air and moisture advection just after sunrise that will likely initiate showers/storms and some stratiform precip. Deep and low level wind shear strengthen as the shortwave approaches but very poor mid-level lapse rates look to keep instability limited and as long as that holds our severe risk should be negligible. Some locally heavy rain is possible but coverage/duration looks too limited for significant issues. Highs will be quite warm, with the current forecast pushing into the upper 80s area wide based on how today performed. A weak front associated with the passing trough mostly washes out over the region in the 12z guidance suite. We maintain fairly good rain chances through Friday but if that front can clear more area than currently modeled we may get a bit of a reprieve, particularly in our western counties Friday late morning and afternoon before afternoon storms refire, dropping again Friday night as daytime heating wanes. Weak moisture return restarts Saturday. It looks like a summertime pulse thunderstorm day with fairly weak shear and good surface heating and moisture. Focused the PoPs more in the afternoon and it really doesn`t look like a total washout type day. The GFS advances a cold front closer to the area, where the ECMWF holds it further northwest. It looks to me like the GFS solution is in part based on convective feedback from convection over OK/KS and prefer the ECMWF solution. Sunday both ECMWF/GFS have a quick progressing shortwave mote through the area and PoPs bump up once again there are timing discrepancies between the two but afternoon/evening showers/storms seem like a reasonable bet. Monday into Tuesday a strong trough ejects off the Rocky Mountains. There are considerable differences in deterministic and ensemble guidance for the evolution of this trough which would have substantial impacts on our severe weather/heavy rain potential for this period. What does seem likely is another surge of gusty south winds that send dewpoints close to 70. Which at bare minimum is going to feel pretty awful compared to what we have been used to this year but the increased moisture will raise rain/thunder chances. The way the trough evolves in the 12z deterministic ECMWF/GFS would probably give us the potential for an organized severe weather event or few Monday- Wednesday but the differences in solutions are too disparate to start locking in on anything, but it is the right time of year for that sort of thing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 For the 06z TAFs, the last of the evening isolated showers and thunderstorm activity will lift north the region, with only passing mid- and high-level clouds expected overnight with light and variable winds. After 14z, winds will pick up from the south sustained at 6-8 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts in the afternoon. FEW-SCT high-based CU around 6kft will also develop in the afternoon. After 03/00z, shower and thunderstorm activity will approach the region from the west. CGI, PAH, and MVN will see impacts prior to 06z, mainly in the form of -SHRA, but did include PROB30 groups after 03z for limited -TSRA potential. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DWS