Text Products for AFD Issued by PBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 121714
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will continue throughout the day as low
pressure exits to the east and a large upper level wave crosses
the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Gusty winds are anticipated through Saturday morning and a Wind
Advisory is in effect. Much cooler air will settle in today and
remain through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder with showers continuing today.
- Wind Advisory in effect for the entire area. Gusts >40 mph
  may bring trees down given the highly saturated ground.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

No notable changes needed for the afternoon update with the
forecast on track...

The powerful surface low that brought all the rain to the area
yesterday continues to slowly move northward over southern
Canada, north of Lake Erie. Convergence along a trough axis
noted in eastern Ohio this afternoon, coupled with developing
meager and shallow instability, is driving some light rain
showers in westerly flow which will continue into this evening
until most likely hi res ensemble timing ends precipitation
chances around 8PM for eastern Ohio, midnight for Pittsburgh,
and lingering into the overnight hours for the ridges and areas
north of I-80. Thus, the highest rainfall amounts of up to 0.75"
will be north and east of Pittsburgh coincident with the
greatest probabilities for >0.5" around 70-80%. Most likely
amounts elsewhere will be around 0.3-0.5". A few rumbles of
thunder are possible this afternoon as well as temperatures
aloft continue to tumble and lapse rates steepen some creating
marginal instability.

The other concern for today will be the strong winds. A very
tight surface pressure gradient, working with cold air
advection and strong surface pressure rises, will all work to
result in gusts up to 40 mph throughout the day. Ensemble
probabilities for gusts exceeding 40 mph peak at 70-90% this
afternoon and evening areawide. The strongest gusts are
expected over Eastern Tucker County, however, even though gusts
will be a little less elsewhere, there could still be issues
with falling trees and power lines as the ground is so saturated
from the heavy rain in the past 24 hours. For this reason, an
areawide impact-based Wind Advisory is in effect through 7AM
Saturday to cover this threat. The original Advisory for Eastern
Tucker County still remains in effect until 6PM Saturday.

Colder air will overspread the region throughout the day, with
the coldest reaching the area this afternoon with the trough
axis. Temperatures today will sink back to below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and chilly Saturday.
- Warmer Sunday with the risk for showers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper trough will lift over N New England on Saturday. Area will
remain under NW flow through the morning hours. The coldest air
will move through Saturday morning and then shift to the
northeast with the exiting trough. Once the coldest air aloft
exits the region, clouds will dissipate from southwest to
northeast.

Temperatures Saturday will remain a bit below normal.

A bit of a low confidence forecast on Sunday concerning the
passage of a cold front. Still seeing differing model solutions
on how far south the front will push on Sunday and in turn how
high the threat for rain will be. Models are leaning toward
higher probs Sunday afternoon. There will be a nice push of
warmer air ahead of the front, which will push temperatures back
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry beginning to the week with warm temperatures.
- Warm through the long term with unsettled weather returning on
  Tuesday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Front should clear most of the area Monday morning, so except
for a few lingering showers over the southern reaches of the
forecast area, Monday looks to be dry. Somewhat cooler air will
settle in over the region on Monday, but temperatures should
still hold above normal.

The long range outlook likely remains unsettled with additional
trough movement from the intermountain west towards the Great
Lakes. Expect a continuation of above to well above normal
temperature with wave-dependent shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General low MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the day
with shower coverage increasing this afternoon as an upper low
transitions over the area.

A tight pressure gradient will yield strong westerly winds
(exceeding 30-35 kt at times), that will continue through the
TAF period.

.Outlook...
Gusty conditions continue into Sat as low pressure swings
through the region. VFR should return to the region by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013>016-
     020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>513.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/MLB
NEAR TERM...22/MLB
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/Frazier
AVIATION...88
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
