Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 220145
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
245 PM SST Thu Mar 21 2024

.Discussions...
Generally, a strong high pressure system extending across the
region will limit the potential for flash flooding through the
new week. Although fair weather is usually associated with a high
pressure system, current satellite data shows convective cumulus
clouds building in the area. In addition, recent soundings
depicts a dry, yet unstable profile. This is due to moisture and
instability forming at the edge of the South Pacific Convergence
Zone (SPCZ) to the south. Hence, scattered showers will remain in
the forecast tonight, which may enhance to numerous showers
overnight as models show a brief uptick in instability for this
time.

Nonetheless, a diminishing trend for shower and convection is
anticipated Friday afternoon as stable conditions moves in from
the east. Isolated showers and a gentle breeze will hold through
the weekend and into the new week. By next Thursday, a mid-level
trough is forecast to enhance moisture in the area. However,
conditions may change for the long term period as model skills are
low greater than 3 days.

&&

.Marine...
Wave heights of 5 to 7 feet are observed in the area via satellite
data. These heights are forecast to persist through the new week.
Although previous discussions mentioned higher wave heights today
due to a strong southerly swell, latest observations does not
show high wave heights. Model data also does not indicate any
significant swells for the forecast period. Will continue to
monitor later observations to confirm the forecast, in the
meantime, no advisories are in place nor expected through the new
week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

TM


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