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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 201736
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Round 1 of showers is moving across the region early this
   AM, 2nd round will move across late this afternoon/evening,
   ending late this evening.

 - Isolated showers possible Sunday through Wednesday, though
   mostly dry conditions expected at this time.

 - Dynamic pattern develops late next week, with increasing
   precipitation chances for most.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Updated forecast to include mention of freezing drizzle over
portions of El Paso County this morning through 11 AM. Light
accumulations on elevated surfaces will be possible for the next
few hours, but ground temperatures appear to be warm enough to
stave off any accumulations on area roadways. Fog is also
present across portions of Teller and El Paso counties this
morning, and can be expected to persist through 11 AM. Areas of
fog with visibilities below 1 mile are present, with patches of
dense fog below 1/4 mile possible as well. Please use caution
on area roadways!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently...

A few bands of showers were noted stretching WSW-ENE across the
region. Otherwise, lots of clouds were note over the region, with a
solid low overcast over the plains. Temps across the plains were
around freezing across N El Paso county while over the remainder of
the plains temps were in the 30s to L40s. The San Luis Valley was
around low 40F. Mtns were generally in the 20s and 30s. A weak but
persistent upslope flow was noted over the plains, and easterlies
have pushed into the SLV.

Today and Tonight...

Round 1 of precip was over the region as I write and these bands of
showers should continue to progress east, with the brunt of the
activity exiting the fcst area by mid to late morning. Decreasing
clouds is indicated over nearly all of te plains by early afternoon,
with the exception being parts of El Paso county, and would expect at
least some sun (if not lots of sun) over a good part of the plains
by afternoon. Clouds over the mtns will be more mid to high level
and it will remain warm over the interior valleys this afternoon.

Temps today will be warmest over the SLV and the western sections of
the eastern plains, typically in the greater southern I-25 corridor
region. Expect max temps around 60 over the Southern I-25 corridor
region, and 40s most other areas of the plains. U40s will be noted
over the N El Paso county region. The SLV will be the warmest area
once again today with M60s. The Upper Ark Rvr valley will be in the
50s. mtns 40s and 50s.

By later this afternoon a 2nd disturbance will push east out of the
mtns and this system will be more convective. I do expect we will
see quite a few weak TSRAs this afternoon and early evening with the
brunt of the activity over the southern half of the higher
elevations (San Juans/S mtns/S I-25 corridor region). Otherwise
showers will push out of the higher terrain by mid to late afternoon
and push eastward across the plains during the late afternoon and
evening time period. Showers should be ending by midnight. May see
some fog in some locations over the plains tonight with lighter winds
and high RH values.

Min temps tonight will be pretty uniform over the region with 30s
most plains and valleys and 20s mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Sunday - Wednesday: The end of the weekend and through the first
half of next week will bring some active to south central and
southeastern Colorado, but overall relatively quiet conditions are
anticipated. Starting Sunday, flow will become predominantly
westerly, though waves within the overall flow will occasionally
influence the region. Given no major forcing, mostly dry conditions
are expected. With that said though, the westerly flow may help
isolated light showers to blossom along the mountains each day,
especially when a wave passes over/near the area. As for lower
elevations, it will come down to how the waves influence the region,
particularly when they shove cold fronts southward, which at this
time is late Monday into early Tuesday, and another cold front surge
mid Tuesday into early Wednesday. These cold fronts may help
initiate additional isolated showers across the lower elevations
during the aforementioned timeframe. Looking at temperatures, an
overall warming trend to above seasonal values is expected. Sunday,
Monday, and Wednesday will be the warmest days, with Tuesday falling
in temperatures thanks to the cold front passages.

Thursday - Friday: For the end of next week, an uptick in active
weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Ensemble model guidance are in good agreement about developing a
troughing pattern over the region. This pattern would increase
precipitation chances for much of the region, especially the
mountains. With that all said though, there are signals that the
plains may miss out on much of the precipitation with this dynamic
pattern and become dry slotted, which is evident in ensemble QPF
fields. This troughing pattern is still a handful of days out
though, and details will need to be ironed out in the coming days.
As for temperatures, Thursday will be the warmest day before any
front can be pushes southward, with Friday expected to be cooler
post cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

At KCOS...Gradual clearing is expected this morning from northwest
to southeast, though LIFR ceilings are still present over station
this hour with off and on very light snow showers. Visibilities have
improved. Ceilings are expected to improve to IFR thresholds from 19-
20Z, with MVFR ceilings persisting through the rest of this
afternoon. Another round of showers is expected this afternoon and
this evening, with the return of LIFR conditions possible after 04Z
tonight.

At KPUB...IFR ceilings are expected to persist until 22-23Z this
afternoon, before another chance for light rain showers will move
through the area. Chances for IFR ceilings and visibilities on
station after 03Z this evening are low to medium tonight, but will
increase if showers manage to move over station later today.
Therefore have gone ahead and include mention of IFR ceilings in the
TAF for later this period. MVFR and VFR conditions are expected
after 15Z tomorrow morning as winds shift more southeasterly and
upslope weakens over the area.

AT KALS..VFR conditions are expected over station for the next 24
hours. Southwesterly winds will become more westerly throughout this
morning, and eventually northwesterly by early this afternoon. Gusts
to 25kt are expected by 20Z today. Mid and upper-level cloud cover
is expected, but precipitation is not likely over or near the
terminal. A shift to easterly winds is expected around 03Z this
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
