208
FXUS65 KREV 072105
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
205 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect breezy winds out of the north through this evening.
Another chilly night is in store tonight into Wednesday morning
with near to sub freezing temperatures. A warming and drying trend
ensues through the latter half of the week, with above average
temperatures expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cool temperatures and breezy north-northwesterly winds will hang
on today. Mostly clear skies will give way to excellent
radiational cooling tonight, allowing near-to-sub-freezing
temperatures to persist in many colder valleys, especially the
Sierra. Make sure to protect sensitive vegetation tonight into
Wednesday morning if you live in a typically cold valley. A
backdoor cold front will pass across the region Wednesday morning,
bringing northeasterly flow and the coolest temperatures of the
week to the area. Expect highs in the 50s across northeast CA and
the Sierra, and low 60s across western NV.

Temperatures will rebound through the end of the week as the
upper-level trough that brought us the chillier weather slowly
moves east over the Rockies/Intermountain West and an upper-level
ridge builds over the northeastern Pacific. Highs will increase
near the 80-degree mark across western NV and the 70-degree mark
in the Sierra by Saturday. Finally, some spring temperatures!
We`ll also see minimal chances for precipitation through Saturday.

A blocking pattern along the West Coast will continue to favor
above-normal temperatures and typical late-day breezes through
early next week. Sunday into Tuesday, the EC-ENS and GEFS show the
ridge sliding east over the Intermountain West and Rockies, with
a weak upper low forming over southern California. This slight
cooling aloft, coupled with increasing PWATs along the western
periphery of the ridge has increased afternoon/evening thunderstorm
probabilities to 10-20% across northeast CA, western NV, and the
Sierra, Sunday through Tuesday. However, forecaster confidence at
this time is low to medium, as ensemble guidance has been wavering
the past few runs with these isolated thunderstorm chances. We
will continue to monitor this situation throughout the week.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites throughout the
week. Surface winds will remain northerly this afternoon and
evening with terminal gusts as high as 20 kts. Patchy blowing dust
could be a concern over portions of the Basin and Range of
western NV this afternoon and evening. Tonight, a backdoor cold
front will usher in northeasterly flow that will persist into
Wednesday afternoon. Sustained wind speeds will be light with
10-15 kts expected.

Temperatures will continue to warm to above average into the
weekend, with chances for isolated thunderstorms possibly
increasing (10-20%) by early next week. However, forecaster
confidence remains low to medium.

-Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
     NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
     CAZ072.

&&

$$