Text Products for AFD Issued by RNK

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 161750
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday. A low pressure
system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front
through the region this weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

  - Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this evening

  - Isolated storms on Wednesday

Back-door cold front now extended from eastern West Virginia to
the North Carolina/Tennessee border. MSAS Lifted Index analysis
showed unstable air west of the boundary with a tight gradient
across the mountains and stable air over the foothills and
piedmont. Latest guidance suggests this front will not move
much tonight then retreats north as a warm front throughout the
day Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
from northwest North Carolina into southeast West Virginia, then
drift east to northeast across the front into the stable air.
Any precipitation east of the Blue Ridge will be isolated and
weak. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
will be in the locations that will be in the warm sector.

Surface dew points in the 50s and cloud cover will keep
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Warm temperatures
will continue on Wednesday, especially in the warm sector.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday

2: Temperatures well above normal

By Wednesday, a warm front just to the north of our area will
continue its slow progression northward. A west to east traveling
frontal system will pick up the warm front and safely north and far
enough away by Thursday that it won`t impact our weather beyond
Thursday.

The approaching system will bring a cold front nearby on Wednesday
and pass through the Mid-Atlantic early Thursday. While we remain in
the warm sector of this setup on Wednesday with better moisture
availability, scattered showers and storms will form mostly in the
mountains west of the Blue Ridge and north of the VA/NC line on
Wednesday afternoon. The rainfall from these showers is not expected
to be particularly heavy. On Thursday, in a slightly drier and more
stable post-frontal environment, precipitation is expected to dry up
by the morning hours. A transient mid-level ridge will also work to
that effect before another late week system brings more showers.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal, as highs sit in the
70s to 80s, and with significant cloud cover, do not cool much in
the overnight periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Wet again on Friday and Saturday

2: Dry and cooler conditions over the weekend

A broad area of surface low pressure with weaker intensity will
pivot out of the southern plains, following along a cold front
hanging from an area of low pressure in eastern Canada. Moderate
confidence in showers for most of the area, but high confidence for
our mountain zones as the cold front lies almost parallel to the
Blue Ridge, just west of it. The low pressure and the front will
track east, clearing the area late Saturday. Temperatures through
the weekend will cool, and with the assistance of an area of high
pressure, keep another area of low pressure from the Gulf at bay,
leading to quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

Back-door cold front now extended from eastern West Virignia to
the North Carolina/Tennessee border MSAS Lifted Index analysis
showed unstable air west of the boundary with a tight gradient
across the mountains and stable air over the foothills and
piedmont. Latest guidance suggests this front will not move
much tonight then retreats north as a warm front throughout the
day Wednesday.

Have VCTS in the KLWB and KBLF TAFs but as storms move east
over the stable air, they will weaken so only VCSH in the KROA
and KBCB TAFS for later this afternoon. Any precipitation east
of the Blue Ridge will be isolated and weak. Better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday will be in the locations
that will be in the warm sector.

SPC SREF suggest a marine stratus layer coming onshore in
eastern North Carolina and moving west overnight. Expect these
clouds to stay east of KLYH/KDAN, and KROA.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday night through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with associated MVFR flight conditions, are
expected ahead of this system, especially each afternoon and
evening. Most of the time should be VFR. Could also have some
MVFR to IFR fog at night.

Sunday looks dry and VFR at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
