024
FXUS64 KSHV 120753
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The active pattern will finally get underway today, as heavy rain
chances begin to increase by this morning, and the severe weather
threat increases into the afternoon. All of this weather is
associated with a rather potent shortwave trough moving through
the Plains, with a weak low pressure and surface boundary
extending across the Slight risk area. This boundary will move
north today as a warm front, which will help set the stage for
more widespread severe weather tomorrow, when the boundary
reverses course as a cold front.

The main weather story in all of this today into tonight will be
the heavy rain, as the Moderate ERO has been expanded into NW LA
to account for this heaviest activity. Widespread 2-4 inches of
rainfall are possible through Monday night, with pockets of 6+
inches certainly not out of the question. In turn, the day shift
flood watch has been expanded in size, and extended in time as
well to account for additional rainfall through Tuesday morning.

The first round of rainfall will exit the region by tonight,
before PoP coverage increases again by Monday afternoon. This
round of heavy rain will be associated with the cold front moving
SE, which will also coincide with the severe weather chances on
Monday. Very little has changed in the thinking with this severe
weather, as large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats.
A very narrow window exists during first initiation in which an
isolated tornado will be possible as well. However, that threat is
almost tertiary in nature given the heavy rainfall.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Rain chances will begin to fade by Tuesday morning, with a very
short "dry period" anticipated through Wednesday night. However,
the next trough will begin moving into the Midwest by Thursday
morning. This will be our next round of heavy rain and potential
severe weather, with another 2-4 inches of rainfall possible in
our southern zones. With that being said, this heavy rainfall
axis may shift south (or north) over the next few days, which
would greatly change the need for another flood watch based on
rainfall here in the short-term. The severe weather threat
continues to look uncertain based on airmass recovery between
heavy rainfall, but there is still plenty of time for that to
change into the weekend as well.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail initially but isolated to
scattered showers will move into the area from the west early in
the period and gradually increase in coverage. More robust
convection is expected to move into East Texas starting around
10/13z before spreading eastward across the rest of the region.
Thunderstorms, which could be strong at times, will likely prevail
at most sites through the remainder of the period. Flight
conditions will also gradually deteriorate. MVFR/IFR conditions
are generally expected once the convection arrives.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  67  84  66 /  90  80  40  20
MLU  77  65  85  66 /  60  90  60  40
DEQ  76  62  80  60 /  70  60  50  10
TXK  76  65  82  64 /  80  80  50  10
ELD  77  62  79  63 /  60  90  50  20
TYR  73  67  85  64 /  90  70  20  10
GGG  73  66  85  64 /  90  80  30  10
LFK  77  68  86  64 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
     for LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...09